Carbon Forecast

Tasmania sits at 0.00 tCO2/MWh with 100% renewables — hydro at 717 MW and wind at 12 MW account for the entire dispatch. South Australia is close behind at 0.035 tCO2/MWh with 92.85% renewables, driven by 520 MW of wind and a small 40 MW gas CCGT baseload. These two regions represent the lowest-intensity options on the NEM right now. At the other end, Victoria is at 1.053 tCO2/MWh with renewables at just 11.77% — brown coal at 2,196 MW dominates the Victorian stack, supplemented by 290 MW of wind and 109 MW of gas OCGT. Queensland sits at 0.854 tCO2/MWh (2.91% renewables), with 2,913 MW of black coal and minimal solar and hydro. New South Wales is at 0.799 tCO2/MWh with 9.21% renewables — 5,279 MW of black coal, 461 MW of hydro, and 75 MW of wind make up the mix, with gas offline.

Looking at today's trajectory from the interval data, SA ran at its cleanest between roughly 07:30 and 20:30 AEST, with intensity holding between 0.033 and 0.038 tCO2/MWh and renewables above 92% throughout that stretch — wind output has been consistent and the gas fleet largely idle. The morning solar window that typically compresses intensity in NSW and VIC was visible between 08:00 and 13:30 AEST, pulling NSW down to a daily low near 0.717–0.724 tCO2/MWh and VIC to around 1.019 tCO2/MWh at 11:30 AEST. Both regions have since trended back up as solar rolls off. QLD has been notable for its flat, high-intensity profile — renewables have stayed below 3.2% since 08:00 AEST with intensity locked near 0.854 tCO2/MWh, indicating limited variable renewable output through the day.

For carbon-sensitive scheduling through the remainder of today, SA and TAS remain the clear windows for low-intensity dispatch and should hold their current profile into the evening given wind is sustaining output. NSW and VIC will not see another intensity reduction without overnight wind uplift — no solar contribution is available from this point, and the coal baseload is stable. Operators with flexibility to shift loads to SA or TAS interconnected periods, or to schedule demand response overnight when NSW wind ticks up marginally, will find those the most favourable windows. QLD offers no near-term green window based on today's profile; renewable penetration there has been effectively flat at under 3.5% since mid-morning with no sign of reversal in the current dispatch data.