regional sa — SA1
The SA spot price sits at $55.10/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 1,258 MW — well below the daytime peak of around 1,640 MW seen earlier today. Today's price profile has been highly structured: overnight wind surplus drove prices negative from roughly 01:30–08:30 AEST (touching -$20/MWh at the trough around 15:15 AEST UTC+8), before demand ramp-up pushed prices into the $80–$138/MWh range through the morning and middle of the day. Prices have since eased as demand retreats through the evening, with the current $55.10/MWh reading among the softer levels seen since mid-afternoon.
The generation mix at the latest interval is wind at 663.71 MW and gas CCGT at 119.48 MW, with gas OCGT and solar both at zero — consistent with post-sunset conditions on a Saturday evening. Renewable penetration sits at 84.74%, and grid carbon intensity is 0.0748 tCO2/MWh, one of the lowest readings of the day. Carbon intensity ranged as high as 0.3253 tCO2/MWh during the morning demand peak when gas dispatch was elevated, before falling sharply through midday as wind output increased. The carbon history shows a sustained low-intensity band from roughly 12:00 AEST onwards, with intensity holding between 0.066 and 0.079 tCO2/MWh for the past eight hours.
Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST interval (21:00 UTC) are tracking in the $75–$103/MWh range, with the most recent runs converging around $77–$82/MWh. This implies a moderate step-up from the current price as the evening progresses, consistent with wind generation easing slightly and the gas CCGT carrying more of the residual load. Load window data confirms that the overnight period from approximately 08:30–13:30 AEST (22:30–03:30 UTC) is forecast at negative to near-zero prices, which aligns with the pattern seen last night — demand-side participants with flexibility will find optimal windows in that range.
Two active market notices are relevant to SA today. Market Notice 141105 records a direction issued to Origin Energy's Quarantine PS Unit 5 at 09:00 AEST today, requiring synchronisation and dispatch by 12:00 AEST for voltage control purposes, with AEMO citing inadequate synchronous generation to maintain voltage security in SA — the direction was expected to expire at 13:00 AEST and has likely concluded. Market Notice 141113 advises a planned MSATS outage on 26 April 2026 from 10:00–14:00 AEST for the eMDM April Maintenance Release; this has no operational impact today but will affect meter data access and B2B transactions on that date. The Heywood interconnector constraint set V-HYTR remains active following the unplanned outage of the Tarrone–Heywood/APD 500 kV line (Notice 141113), which constrains V-SA and other interconnectors — traders should monitor whether this binding constraint is contributing to the elevated predispatch outlook for the coming interval.