commodity demand qld — QLD1

Queensland spot sits at $77.94/MWh with demand at 5,939 MW as of 6:30 AEST — well down from today's peak of 8,210 MW recorded around 18:00 AEST, when prices repeatedly struck $103.90/MWh. The price-demand relationship across today's trading has been tight and consistent: every demand excursion above 8,000 MW drove prices into the $92–$104/MWh band, while the sustained decline from that peak through the evening has pulled prices back into the high-$70s. The morning ramp was equally clear — demand climbed from a low of around 4,800 MW in the early hours (when prices repeatedly printed zero or sub-$1/MWh) to the 8,200 MW peak in roughly six hours, with prices tracking upward through $40–$55/MWh at 14:00 AEST before breaching $90/MWh as demand crested.

The near-term forecast signals a price step-up from current levels. The most recent AEMO pre-dispatch forecast for the 07:00 AEST interval (21:00 UTC) has settled around $87/MWh, up from the current $77.94/MWh, consistent with a Saturday evening where demand is expected to tick modestly higher as residential load builds through the dinner period. The 07:30 AEST interval is forecast at $69.97/MWh, suggesting the market anticipates demand will ease again once that brief evening lift passes. Overnight load windows from 08:00 AEST onward are forecast deeply negative — prices as low as -$15.90/MWh between 12:30 and 13:30 AEST — indicating the market expects substantial overnight surplus once demand drops toward the 4,800–5,000 MW trough seen in the early hours.

Generation is currently led by black coal at 2,847.75 MW, with hydro contributing 86.16 MW and minimal output from solar (0.3 MW) and gas OCGT (0.06 MW). With solar output at effectively zero overnight and renewables accounting for just 2.95% of the mix at 0.8541 tCO₂/MWh, the carbon intensity is at its daily high — it reached a low of 0.6758 tCO₂/MWh during overnight hours when wind and hydro held a larger share of a smaller load. Demand-side flexibility has a clear window: the overnight trough from 08:00–12:00 AEST offers sub-zero prices across multiple intervals, making load shifting from the current $78/MWh environment into that window highly favourable for price-sensitive consumers and battery operators.