Carbon Forecast

Carbon intensity across the NEM sits at sharply divergent levels at 06:30 AEST. Tasmania is at 0.00 tCO2/MWh with 100% renewable generation — entirely hydro and wind — and has held that position consistently across the entire dataset. South Australia is at 0.07 tCO2/MWh with 84.7% renewable penetration, driven by 664 MW of wind against a modest 119 MW of gas CCGT balancing load; SA reached its lowest point of the morning around 0.07 tCO2/MWh and has been holding that level since around midday. At the other end of the spectrum, Victoria sits at 1.01 tCO2/MWh with only 15.6% renewables — 2,196 MW of brown coal dominates the dispatch stack alongside 412 MW of wind and 109 MW of gas OCGT, with solar yet to contribute at this hour. Queensland is at 0.85 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at just 2.95%, its 2,848 MW of black coal running at high output and hydro contributing 86 MW. NSW is at 0.79 tCO2/MWh with 10.1% renewables; black coal accounts for 5,461 MW, hydro adds 511 MW, and wind contributes 103 MW with solar offline overnight.

The generation mix driving these outcomes is straightforwardly a function of the post-sunset, overnight dispatch profile. Solar is at zero across all mainland regions, so the renewable contribution is entirely wind and hydro. Queensland's wind fleet is contributing less than 3% — the lowest renewable share on the NEM — reflecting both limited wind resource and the state's heavy reliance on baseload black coal. Victoria's intensity has risen steadily through the back half of the data from a low of 0.56 tCO2/MWh around 11:00 AEST to above 1.00 tCO2/MWh through the afternoon and evening as wind generation softened and brown coal maintained its baseload position. NSW intensity has tracked in a tighter band of 0.71–0.81 tCO2/MWh across the day, with the mild dip around 08:30–09:00 AEST (0.71 tCO2/MWh) coinciding with slightly higher renewable penetration near 19%.

For carbon-sensitive loads, the optimal scheduling windows today are clear. SA and Tasmania offer consistently low intensity throughout the day and into tonight — SA's 0.07–0.08 tCO2/MWh band has held since approximately 12:00 AEST and is likely to persist while wind generation remains above 600 MW and gas stays in a backing role. Tasmania's 0.00 tCO2/MWh reading is structural given its hydro-and-wind-only dispatch. On the mainland, the next meaningful low-intensity window in NSW will arrive when solar generation ramps from approximately 07:00–08:00 AEST onwards; the data shows NSW intensity dipped to 0.71 tCO2/MWh in the late-morning solar window and is expected to repeat today under comparable conditions. Victoria and Queensland offer no comparable green window in the near term given current mix composition — loads in those regions that can shift to SA or TAS via interconnector-aware scheduling will find substantially lower intensity through the morning and midday hours.