regional vic — VIC1

The spot price in Victoria sits at $31.69/MWh as of 06:35 AEST, with total demand at 4,944 MW. That current price represents a significant moderation from the morning peak, where intervals touched $52.69/MWh around 09:00–09:30 AEST and a brief spike to $46.67/MWh at 21:50 AEST. Overnight, prices ran deeply negative from roughly 11:30 AEST to 15:00 AEST, bottoming at -$32.34/MWh at 12:20 AEST — a pattern driven by excess supply against low overnight demand that fell as low as 3,365 MW. The 24-hour price profile has been volatile, swinging more than $85/MWh across the trading day, and the current $31.69/MWh level reflects the evening demand build now under way.

The generation mix at 06:30 AEST is led by brown coal at 2,007 MW, followed by wind at 662 MW, gas OCGT at 110 MW, and hydro at 57 MW. Solar output is zero at this hour. Renewables are contributing 25.4% of generation, down sharply from overnight highs of 53.6% recorded around 14:30 AEST when wind and hydro dominated a low-demand trough. Carbon intensity stands at 0.8884 tCO2/MWh, the highest reading of the day — up from a trough of 0.5409 tCO2/MWh at 14:30 AEST — consistent with the reduced renewable share as evening demand grows and solar exits the mix entirely.

Predispatch forecasts point to a firm lift in prices for the 07:00–07:30 AEST intervals, with the most recent runs targeting $50.94/MWh at 07:00 AEST and $50.94/MWh at 07:30 AEST. Earlier in the day, predispatch had pencilled in $60–$81/MWh for the evening peak before successive runs revised that estimate down as market conditions clarified. The current trajectory is solidly in the $35–$53/MWh range through the coming hour, consistent with a typical autumn evening demand ramp without extreme scarcity conditions. Flexible load operators and battery operators should treat the 08:00–09:30 AEST window (23:00–00:30 UTC) as the likely price ceiling for the cycle, with load windows after 08:30 AEST showing forecast prices retreating to near-zero or negative territory again overnight.

On the network, the most relevant active notice is the reclassification of the Eildon PS – Mt Beauty No.1 and No.2 220 kV lines as a credible contingency event due to lightning activity (Market Notice 141102, issued 23:53 AEST), with a subsequent cancellation at 00:54 AEST (Notice 141103) reverting those lines to non-credible status once the lightning threat cleared. No constraint sets were invoked under either notice. Earlier in the day, the Yallourn–Rowville 7 and 8 220 kV lines were subject to two separate reclassification/cancellation cycles (Notices 141091, 141093, 141097, 141100), again tied to lightning and also cleared without invoked