regional tas — TAS1

Tasmania's spot price sits at $88.20/MWh as of 06:35 AEST, holding at the regional price cap floor for this trading period with total demand at 1,161.85 MW. The 24-hour price profile shows clear structure: an overnight trough between roughly 02:30–05:00 AEST where prices dropped to $55.14–$65.16/MWh, a morning ramp to $88.20/MWh from around 08:00 AEST, a midday softening back toward $55–$65/MWh through the 13:00–17:30 AEST window, and then a sustained return to $88.20/MWh from 17:55 AEST that persists into the current interval. The single standout was a brief dip to $29.19/MWh at 00:00 AEST, likely reflecting a short-lived oversupply condition on the Basslink interconnector.

The generation mix at 06:30 AEST comprises hydro at 493.80 MW and wind at 255.05 MW, with gas OCGT contributing 0 MW. Combined output of 748.85 MW against demand of approximately 1,161.85 MW indicates Tasmania is drawing the balance — roughly 413 MW — across the Basslink interconnector from Victoria. Carbon intensity is 0 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration recorded at 100% across every interval in the carbon history dataset, consistent with the all-hydro and wind dispatch profile throughout today's trading day. Gas OCGT has not been dispatched at any point in the available data.

Predispatch forecasts point firmly to $88.20/MWh at the 07:00 AEST half-hour target, with a step up to $96.24/MWh flagged from the 07:30 AEST interval onward — a signal consistent with rising demand as Tasmania moves into the Friday morning peak. Load window data for the overnight period (from approximately 08:30–11:30 AEST tonight) shows forecast prices falling back into the $56–$68/MWh range, rated "good" quality, representing potential savings of $31–$40/MWh relative to current levels. Flexibility-capable loads and demand response participants should note that window from approximately 10:00–12:00 AEST tonight as the most price-advantaged period based on current predispatch.

On market notices, the most directly relevant TAS1 event is the reclassification and subsequent cancellation of a credible contingency involving the Gordon – Chapel St No.1 and No.2 220 kV lines (MNs 141098 and 141101), triggered by lightning activity and resolved at 23:04 AEST overnight. While active, this event invoked constraint sets F-T-CSGO and T-CSGO\_N-2, both of which include the Basslink interconnector T-V-MNSP1 on the left-hand side, meaning Basslink transfer limits were temporarily tightened. Those constraints are now revoked. A similar lightning-driven reclassification of the Burnie – Port Latta – Smithton 110 kV double circuit (MNs 141094 and 141095) was raised at 19:45 AEST and cancelled at 20:49 AEST with no constraint sets invoked. Both events are resolved; no active