regional sa — SA1

The South Australian spot price sits at $103.44/MWh as of 06:35 AEST this morning, which represents a significant retreat from the elevated pricing that dominated much of the day. Today's trading has been characterised by extreme volatility: prices plunged deep into negative territory overnight — reaching as low as -$30.76/MWh around 13:20 AEST — before surging sharply through the morning peak, touching $370/MWh at 19:50 AEST and sustaining multiple intervals above $300/MWh between 19:30 and 20:30 AEST. Total demand at the current interval sits at 1,355 MW, well below the intraday peak of approximately 1,705 MW recorded during the mid-morning period.

The current generation mix is split across gas and wind, with no solar output at this hour. Gas CCGT is contributing 228.2 MW, gas OCGT 97.75 MW, and wind 201.26 MW — giving wind a 38% share of the dispatch stack. Carbon intensity sits at 0.3326 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at 38.17%, a material improvement from the 0.488 tCO2/MWh and 10.15% renewable share recorded at 22:30 AEST when demand was heavier and wind output was lower. The carbon profile through today has been markedly two-tiered: overnight and early morning intervals recorded intensity as low as 0.112 tCO2/MWh with renewables above 75%, while the mid-morning and afternoon demand peak pushed intensity above 0.46 tCO2/MWh as gas generation lifted to meet load.

Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00–08:30 AEST window (21:00–22:30 UTC) point to prices consolidating in the $125–$170/MWh range, with the most recent runs centred around $138–$161/MWh. There is no predispatch signal suggesting a return to the extreme spike levels seen this morning; the trajectory implies a gradual softening through the early hours of Friday as demand falls away overnight. Load window modelling for the 09:30–16:30 AEST period tomorrow indicates widespread negative or near-zero pricing expected, consistent with the pattern seen in overnight intervals today.

There are no active market notices directly affecting SA1. The contingency reclassifications on record relate to lightning events in VIC1 (Eildon–Mt Beauty and Yallourn–Rowville 220 kV lines) and TAS1, all of which have since been cancelled or do not carry binding constraint sets on SA interconnectors. An older LOR1 reserve notice for SA dated 12 April has been superseded and cancelled. Grid stress is elevated at 68.4 out of 100 per the current scoring, reflecting the volatility seen through the trading day, though market conditions are easing as demand tracks lower into the Friday overnight period.