commodity demand qld — QLD1
Queensland spot price sits at $71.69/MWh with demand at 6,426 MW as of 06:35 AEST, well down from today's intraday peak of 8,195 MW reached around 18:55 AEST during the morning business ramp. The price-demand relationship across today's trading has been pronounced: as demand climbed from an overnight trough near 4,800 MW — where prices ran negative, bottoming at -$3.20/MWh around 11:00–12:00 AEST — through to the morning peak above 8,100 MW, prices escalated sharply into the $103–$117/MWh band between 17:25 and 18:30 AEST. That 3,300 MW swing in demand drove a price differential of roughly $120/MWh, illustrating tight supply stack conditions in the upper demand range.
Demand is now on a clear evening descent, tracking from the ~8,200 MW morning peak back through the 6,400 MW range, and the price response is proportional — from the $85–$117/MWh morning corridor, prices have eased through $64–$70/MWh across the afternoon and are currently holding at $71.69/MWh. Forward forecasts for the 07:00 AEST half-hour (21:00 UTC) are locked tightly at $64.83–$71.83/MWh across all recent PASA runs, with the 07:30 AEST period forecast at $57–$64.83/MWh. This convergence in forecast pricing points to the market expecting continued demand softening into the early evening as the post-work load tails off on a mild autumn Friday (16°C, minimal cooling or heating demand).
The overnight period is forecast to see prices return to deeply negative territory. Load window data shows prices ranging from -$3 to -$25/MWh between 08:00–13:00 AEST, consistent with the pattern observed last night where prices ran negative from around 09:30 AEST through to 14:00 AEST as overnight demand fell below 4,900 MW. Flexibility-capable loads and battery operators should note the overnight trough as a material charging opportunity, with the deepest negative windows clustering around the 11:00–13:00 AEST band. The current generation mix — black coal at 2,461 MW, hydro at 86 MW, solar at 2 MW, and negligible gas OCGT — reflects a Saturday profile with solar output effectively zero at this hour, meaning tonight's low-demand period will be driven by baseload management rather than renewable oversupply.
No Queensland-specific network constraints are active today. The market notices are predominantly VIC and TAS contingency reclassifications related to lightning activity, with no material impact on QLD dispatch or interconnector flows.