Regional Outlook — VIC1: Wednesday 15 April 2026

The Victoria spot price sits at $11/MWh at 06:30 AEST, a sharp reversal from the elevated conditions that dominated the morning trading window, where prices ran from $65/MWh at 16:05 through to a session peak of $241/MWh at 19:55. That extended high-price period through the 17:00–20:00 AEST window reflected peak demand against a generation mix weighted toward thermal plant, with total demand reaching above 6,300 MW at its highest. Demand now sits at 4,980 MW as the region moves into overnight off-peak conditions.

The current generation mix shows wind contributing 1,544.71 MW and brown coal at 1,546 MW — near parity between the two largest sources. Gas OCGT is dispatched at 108.91 MW, hydro at 17.12 MW, and solar at zero, consistent with post-sunset conditions. Combined renewable output (wind and hydro) accounts for 1,561.83 MW. Carbon intensity sits at 0.6084 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at 48.55%, a significant improvement from the 06:00–10:00 AEST period where intensity peaked at 1.1068 tCO2/MWh and renewable penetration fell as low as 6.66% — the point at which wind was minimal and thermal plant carried the bulk of morning demand.

Predispatch forecasts are aligned firmly with low overnight pricing. The 07:00 AEST (21:00 UTC) interval carries a forecast of $36.60/MWh in the most recent predispatch run, stepping back toward $8.95–$11/MWh through the 08:00–15:00 AEST window before load windows indicate negative pricing from approximately 08:00 AEST onwards — with spot prices forecast as low as -$63.60/MWh around 13:00 AEST. This pattern is consistent with strong overnight and morning wind generation suppressing wholesale prices through the low-demand trough. Flexible loads and battery operators should note the extended negative price window projected across the 09:00–14:00 AEST block.

The one active market notice of direct Victoria relevance is the AEMO Power System Events notice (141087) reporting that both the JLysaght–Tyabb 1 and JLysaght–Tyabb 2 220kV lines tripped at 15:06 AEST, disconnecting 16 MW of bulk electrical load. AEMO did not instruct load shedding, has identified the cause, and considers recurrence unlikely under current conditions — the event remains classified as non-credible and no constraint sets are currently invoked as a result. No reserve notices or price review notices are active for VIC1 at this time.