Regional Outlook — TAS1: Wednesday 15 April 2026

Tasmania's spot price sits at $88.20/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, comfortably below the day's peak of $157.82/MWh recorded around 19:55 AEST and well off the morning ramp that pushed prices to $143.03/MWh at 18:45 AEST. The 24-hour price history shows a clear pattern: a low base overnight in the high $70s–mid $80s/MWh, a sharp morning ramp from roughly 17:00 AEST through to around 18:15 AEST where prices consistently cleared above $130/MWh, followed by a step-down back toward $88.20/MWh through the evening as demand eased from its peak of 1,350 MW to the current 1,127 MW.

The generation mix is entirely emissions-free at this interval. Hydro is contributing 424 MW and wind 192 MW, with gas OCGT at zero output. Renewable penetration sits at 100% and carbon intensity records 0 tCO2/MWh — a figure that has held at zero across every interval in the carbon history dataset, reflecting Tasmania's reliance on hydro and wind capacity throughout the day. The OCGT units are available as a backstop but are not being dispatched under current conditions.

Predispatch forecasts point to prices holding in the $88.20/MWh range through the 07:00–07:30 AEST window, before the load window analysis signals a meaningful step-down into the overnight period. The most attractive load windows are flagged from around 11:30–12:30 AEST, where forecast prices drop into the low-to-mid $20s–$50s/MWh range — savings of up to 74% against the current reference price — with several intervals rated "excellent" or "good." This overnight trough is consistent with typical Tasmanian off-peak hydro dispatch behaviour and represents a material opportunity for flexible or deferrable loads.

The most relevant active notice for Tasmania is AEMO Market Notice 141069, which confirms the Farrell–Tribute 220 kV, Farrell–John Butters 220 kV, and Farrell–Mackintosh 110 kV lines — which tripped on 11 April due to lightning — have been returned to service and reclassified back to a non-credible contingency event as of 13 April. The constraint sets F-T-JB_MC_TI_N-2 and T-JB_MC_TI_250, which sit on the T-V-MNSP1 Basslink interconnector's left-hand side, have been revoked. This removes a material Basslink export constraint that was active across the week. No Tasmania-specific active notices remain outstanding beyond the resolved Farrell corridor event; the VIC non-credible contingency (JLysaght–Tyabb lines, Notice 141087) is cross-border and not directly constraining TAS1 at this time.