regional sa — SA1

The spot price in South Australia sits at $11.96/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, a sharp contrast to the sustained elevated prices seen through the morning and midday period, where intervals regularly printed between $130/MWh and $250/MWh — with a peak of $279.67/MWh at 23:25 AEST. The current price reflects a pronounced evening wind ramp: wind is generating 359.7 MW while gas CCGT contributes 101.48 MW, with solar output at zero given the time of day. Gas OCGT is offline. Total demand sits at 1,375.92 MW, a moderate autumn evening load. Wind is accounting for the bulk of local generation, with renewable penetration at 78% and carbon intensity at 0.1078 tCO2/MWh — the lowest reading in today's dataset and well down from the midday high of 0.4758 tCO2/MWh recorded around 22:30 AEST when wind output was subdued and gas was carrying a greater share of the load.

The carbon trajectory through today tells a clear story of how the generation mix has shifted across the diurnal cycle. Intensity peaked at 0.472 tCO2/MWh around 20:00–22:30 AEST (10:00–12:30 UTC) when renewable penetration fell as low as 12.3%, with gas supplying the majority of demand during that period. From around 04:00 AEST onward, wind output has progressively strengthened, driving renewables back above 78% and compressing both price and intensity to current levels.

Predispatch forecasts point to prices remaining low through the overnight period. The 07:00 AEST interval is forecast at $22.09/MWh, with the 07:30 AEST interval forecast around $10–12/MWh. Beyond that, the load window data shows forecast prices turning negative from approximately 08:00 AEST, deepening to around -$12 to -$28/MWh between 09:00 and 10:00 AEST, with the steepest negative forecasts reaching -$55/MWh in isolated intervals around 13:00 AEST. Flexible loads and batteries with the ability to consume or charge through the early-to-mid morning window are well-positioned. Prices are expected to lift again once solar output declines this afternoon and demand builds into the evening peak, consistent with the pattern observed today.

The most relevant active market notice for SA is the power system event from AEMO (Market Notice 141087) reporting a non-credible contingency event in VIC at 15:06 AEST — the simultaneous trip of the JLysaght–Tyabb 1 and JLysaght–Tyabb 2 220 kV lines, with 16 MW of bulk electrical load disconnected. AEMO has assessed the event as unlikely to recur under current conditions and has not reclassified it as credible. No load shedding was instructed. This notice is in an adjacent region but is relevant given SA's interconnector reliance on the VIC–SA link for surplus export and import capacity. Additionally, a prior Forecast LOR1 notice (141048) for SA covering an early-morning window on 14 April has already passed without escalation. No active reserve notices apply to SA at this time.