Carbon Forecast

Carbon intensity across the NEM sits at a wide spread this morning, with SA1 at 0.11 tCO2/MWh (78% renewables) and TAS1 at 0.00 tCO2/MWh (100% renewables) anchoring the low end, while QLD1 at 0.85 tCO2/MWh (2.9% renewables) and NSW1 at 0.82 tCO2/MWh (6.9% renewables) sit at the high end. VIC1 is currently at 0.61 tCO2/MWh with 48.6% renewables, tracking notably better than its mid-morning peak of 1.11 tCO2/MWh recorded around 09:00–09:30 AEST.

The generation mix explains the divergence clearly. NSW1 is running 5,255 MW of black coal against just 142 MW of wind and negligible solar at this hour, leaving renewables with minimal share. QLD1 mirrors this — 2,880 MW of black coal, 86 MW of hydro, and near-zero renewables at 2.9% — producing a flat, coal-dominated intensity profile that has barely moved all day. VIC1's improvement through the evening is driven by 1,545 MW of wind running alongside 1,546 MW of brown coal, with the wind share lifting renewables to nearly half of dispatch. SA1's 360 MW of wind combined with 101 MW of gas CCGT and no coal produces the lowest mainland intensity, with wind carrying 78% of local generation. TAS1's 424 MW of hydro and 192 MW of wind deliver its consistent zero-intensity result.

Looking at today's trajectory, the pattern across the day is instructive for carbon-sensitive scheduling. SA1 recorded its lowest intensity between 19:00 and 20:30 AEST (0.10–0.11 tCO2/MWh, ~79% renewables), a window that is effectively open right now and has been strengthening through the evening as wind output holds. VIC1's best window has similarly been the post-17:00 AEST period, dropping from 1.11 tCO2/MWh at mid-morning to 0.61 tCO2/MWh currently as wind generation ramped. Both regions saw their worst intensity during the morning demand ramp (07:00–10:00 AEST) when thermal plant carried peak load with minimal solar contribution in April conditions. NSW1 and QLD1 offer no comparable low-intensity windows across the full day's data — intensity in both regions holds between 0.72 and 0.85 tCO2/MWh throughout, with no meaningful solar contribution at this hour and wind providing marginal relief in NSW1 only.

For carbon-sensitive loads, SA1 and TAS1 are the clear scheduling targets right now and will remain so through the overnight period. VIC1 is a viable option in the current window, though its intensity is sensitive to wind availability and will likely firm again during tomorrow's morning ramp. Operators in NSW1 and QLD1 should note that the modest intensity dip seen in NSW1 around 09:00–10:00 AEST (0.73 tCO2/MWh, ~17% renewables) — driven by solar — represents the best daily window in those regions and is worth targeting