regional vic — VIC1

Victoria's spot price sits at $81.31/MWh at 06:35 AEST, with total demand at 5,217 MW — well below the morning peak of 6,447 MW reached around 18:15 AEST during the earlier trading period. The day's price profile tells a clear story: prices ran hard through the 18:00–21:30 AEST window, touching $261/MWh at 20:50 AEST before collapsing sharply as demand eased. The afternoon and evening hours settled into a narrow $70–85/MWh band, broadly tracking the ~$72–84/MWh floor set by brown coal baseload. Today's early-morning lows dropped to $34.80/MWh, consistent with overnight off-peak softness.

The generation mix is dominated by brown coal at 2,062 MW, with wind contributing 581 MW, gas OCGT at 109 MW, and hydro at 17 MW. Solar is at zero output — consistent with the overnight settlement timestamp (06:25 AEST). Gas CCGT is offline. Renewables are contributing 21.4% of generation at the latest carbon reading, up from a trough of around 10% during the earlier high-demand period. Carbon intensity sits at 0.9359 tCO2/MWh, a meaningful improvement from the 1.05–1.09 tCO2/MWh range recorded during last night's evening peak when wind output was lower and thermal plant ran harder to meet the 5,600–5,700 MW demand surge.

Predispatch forecasts point to a modest lift in price through the 07:00–08:00 AEST window, with the 21:00 UTC (08:00 AEST) half-hour interval forecast at $85.83/MWh in the most recent run, stepping down to around $62–66/MWh by 08:30 AEST as solar generation begins to come online and demand tracks its mid-morning descent. The load window data shows near-zero and negative forecast prices from 09:00 AEST onwards through the early afternoon — reflecting anticipated solar saturation and the structural mid-day price softness now typical of Victorian autumn trading days. Prices are expected to recover toward the $65–$100/MWh range ahead of the evening ramp.

The most directly relevant active market notices for Victoria are the PRICES SUBJECT TO REVIEW notices covering the 08:25–08:45 AEST trading intervals, though the 08:25 interval has since been confirmed with prices unchanged under MN 141081. No constraint sets are currently invoked in VIC1. The earlier Chalumbin-Turkinje contingency reclassification (MN 141083/141084) was isolated to QLD1 and is now cancelled. The previous Yallourn–Rowville 7 & 8 220 kV contingency reclassification affecting VIC1 (MN 141039/141041) was resolved on 11 April and no constraint sets remain active from that event.