Regional Outlook — TAS1: Tuesday 14 April 2026

The spot price in Tasmania sits at $96.24/MWh as of 06:35 AEST, with total demand at 1,161.82 MW. Over the past 24 hours, prices have traced a clear pattern: an overnight trough in the low-to-mid $60s/MWh between roughly 23:00 and 05:00 AEST, a sharp mid-morning spike reaching $229.88/MWh at 20:50 AEST and $181.03/MWh at 19:50 AEST, before settling back to the current $96.24/MWh band through the evening. The 24-hour simple average across the price history sits in the $90–95/MWh range, placing the current price broadly in line with the daily mean once the mid-morning volatility is stripped out.

The generation mix is entirely emissions-free at the latest trading interval (06:25 AEST). Hydro is contributing 597.22 MW, wind 114.39 MW, and gas OCGT is at zero output. Carbon intensity registers 0 tCO2/MWh with 100% renewable penetration — a figure that has held continuously across every recorded interval in the carbon history dataset spanning the past 33+ hours. No fossil fuel generation is active in the region at this time.

Predispatch forecasts point to a stable near-term price trajectory. The 07:00 AEST half-hour is forecast at $96.22/MWh, with the 07:30 AEST interval nudging slightly higher to $96.22–$96.24/MWh. Looking further into the morning, forecasts for the 08:00–10:30 AEST window cluster in the $96–$108/MWh range, consistent with the morning demand ramp that drove elevated prices at equivalent times in the prior day's trading. The 08:30 AEST interval carries one forecast outlier at $113.30/MWh, signalling some uncertainty around the extent of the morning peak. Overnight intervals from 09:00 AEST tonight onward are broadly forecast at $88.20/MWh, suggesting the market anticipates a return to the lower price band once demand rolls off.

The most relevant active notice for Tasmania is Market Notice 141069, which confirms the Farrell–Tribute 220 kV, Farrell–John Butters 220 kV, and Farrell–Mackintosh 110 kV lines have been returned to service following their lightning-induced trip on 11 April, with constraint sets T-JB_MC_TI_250 and F-T-JB_MC_TI_N-2 revoked as of 20:25 AEST on 13 April. This removes a binding constraint that had been limiting Basslink (T-V-MNSP1) export capacity — traders should note the interconnector now has greater operational headroom, which is consistent with the price convergence observed between TAS1 and VIC1 pricing. There are also several active notices regarding AEMO's review of 08:25–08:45 AEST intervals on 14 April under Clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs), though the 08:25 interval has since been confirmed with prices unchanged.