regional sa — SA1
The South Australian spot price sits at $170.44/MWh with total demand at 1,409 MW as of 06:35 AEST. That price is broadly consistent with where the region has traded for much of the past several hours, though it represents a significant step down from the afternoon peak band where prices repeatedly tested $279–$361/MWh between 00:30 and 01:45 AEST. Over the past 24 hours SA has seen substantial intraday volatility, with the session high touching $370/MWh around 08:35 AEST yesterday evening and a low of $43/MWh in the early-morning trough — giving a wide spread that underscores the region's characteristic price sensitivity to supply-demand balance shifts.
The current generation mix is gas-dominated with no solar output at this hour. Gas CCGT is contributing 202 MW, gas OCGT 139 MW, and wind 100 MW, for a total tracked dispatch of approximately 441 MW against 1,409 MW of demand — the balance being met via interconnector imports from Victoria. Renewable penetration sits at 20.87% as of the latest carbon interval (06:00 AEST), up from the overnight trough of around 2–5% when wind output was minimal, and down from the daylight peak of 29% recorded around 15:30 AEST. Carbon intensity is 0.4367 tCO2/MWh, improved from the overnight high of 0.54 tCO2/MWh but well above the daytime lows near 0.35 tCO2/MWh seen when wind was stronger. With solar now at zero output (pre-dawn), intensity is unlikely to fall further until generation picks up after sunrise.
Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST half-hour (21:00 UTC) are converging firmly on $170.44/MWh across the most recent runs, with earlier volatile reads of $360.55/MWh now abandoned as more dispatch intervals have resolved. The overnight load windows signal sharply lower prices from around 09:00–13:00 AEST as demand drops and wind generation is expected to contribute more, with multiple forecast windows showing near-zero and negative prices between 09:30 and 13:30 AEST. Prices then lift back into the $87–$110/MWh range from 17:00 AEST as the morning demand ramp begins. Flexibility operators and demand-response participants should note the overnight negative-price window as the primary optimisation opportunity today.
Two active market notices are directly relevant to SA participants. AEMO declared a Forecast LOR1 condition for SA covering 01:30–02:00 AEST today (Market Notice 141048), citing a minimum capacity reserve of only 258 MW against a requirement of 406 MW — that window has now passed but it explains the elevated OCGT dispatch and price spikes of $299–$361/MWh observed between 11:00 and 12:00 AEST overnight. Separately, AEMO flagged prices at the 08:25–08:45 AEST intervals as subject to review for Manifestly Incorrect Inputs (Notices 141071–141075), though 08:25 was subsequently confirmed unchanged (Notice 141081); the 08:30–08:45 intervals remain under review and traders with exposure to those settlement periods should monitor for any revision.