commodity demand qld — QLD1

Queensland spot price sits at $85.53/MWh with demand at 6,382 MW at 06:35 AEST, well off the day's peak of 7,900 MW reached during the 18:00–18:30 AEST morning business ramp. The price-demand relationship today is textbook: demand climbed from an overnight trough of around 4,955 MW (circa 14:35 AEST the previous night) and prices tracked in lockstep, accelerating from near-zero and negative territory through the small hours to a high of $231.70/MWh at 18:15 AEST as demand crested near 7,800 MW. That single interval spike, which triggered AEMO price review notices for multiple surrounding intervals, stands out against an otherwise orderly morning ramp where prices held in the $100–$125/MWh band between 17:00 and 18:30 AEST.

Demand is now in post-peak decline, having pulled back roughly 1,500 MW from the morning high. Price has compressed accordingly, dropping from the $100+ range at 20:00 AEST to the current $85.53/MWh. This afternoon's shoulder period is running in the low-to-mid $70s/MWh range across the 01:00–07:30 AEST window, consistent with demand sitting between 5,600–5,900 MW. The price sensitivity is clear: each 500 MW step up in demand through the 6,000–7,500 MW range is adding roughly $15–25/MWh to the spot price under today's supply stack.

The forecast trajectory points to a further demand softening into tonight's minimum, with AEMO pre-dispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST half-hour sitting at $82.19/MWh and the 07:30 AEST interval forecast at $62.95/MWh — both well below current levels — consistent with demand continuing to ease into the 5,000–5,500 MW overnight trough. The load window data confirms prices are expected to dip to near-zero or negative overnight from approximately 08:00–09:30 AEST as demand bottoms and generation surplus builds, mirroring the pattern seen in the early hours today where multiple intervals printed at $0/MWh or below −$3/MWh.

One network factor worth flagging: AEMO issued a contingency reclassification notice at 20:22 AEST for the Chalumbin–Turkinje 132 kV double circuit in Queensland due to lightning, before cancelling it at 21:24 AEST with no constraint sets invoked either way. That event coincides with the brief $231.70/MWh spike at 18:15 AEST and the surrounding price review notices for the 18:25–18:45 AEST intervals — those intervals remain subject to AEMO review under clause 3.9.2B for manifestly incorrect inputs, so final settlement prices for that window are not yet confirmed. Traders with exposure around that period should monitor the review outcome.