Carbon Forecast

Tasmania records 0.00 tCO2/MWh at 100% renewable penetration — entirely hydro and wind — making it the lowest-intensity region on the NEM right now by a wide margin. South Australia sits at 0.44 tCO2/MWh with 20.87% renewables, a mix of gas CCGT (202 MW), gas OCGT (139 MW), and wind (100 MW) driving that result. NSW is at 0.80 tCO2/MWh with just 9.25% renewables; black coal dominates at 5,836 MW with hydro (456 MW) and wind (81 MW) providing the balance, and solar is contributing nothing at this hour. Queensland carries the second-highest intensity at 0.85 tCO2/MWh with only 3.2% renewables — black coal accounts for 2,629 MW, hydro 86 MW, and solar a negligible 0.5 MW. Victoria is the highest-intensity region on the mainland at 0.94 tCO2/MWh despite 21.36% renewables; brown coal runs at 2,062 MW and wind at 581 MW, with gas OCGT (109 MW) providing support.

The current generation mix reflects the post-sunset night-time profile. Solar across all mainland regions is at or near zero, removing what was a meaningful intensity moderator during the midday window. Looking back through today's data, NSW intensity dipped to around 0.71–0.72 tCO2/MWh during the 08:00–10:30 AEST window when solar was pushing renewables above 18%, and SA touched its daily low near 0.35–0.39 tCO2/MWh in the early-morning wind window between roughly 04:30–06:00 AEST. Queensland's pattern is notably flat through the day — intensity has held in the 0.85–0.85 tCO2/MWh band for most of the trading day with renewables barely exceeding 3%, reflecting near-constant coal dispatch.

For carbon-sensitive loads planning ahead for the remainder of Wednesday, the lowest-intensity windows on the mainland will return with solar generation from approximately 07:00–14:00 AEST. Based on today's pattern, NSW intensity should ease back toward 0.71–0.73 tCO2/MWh during peak solar hours, and SA has the potential to push below 0.40 tCO2/MWh again if overnight wind holds. Victoria's intensity responds less strongly to solar given the scale of brown coal baseload, but wind variability can shift it 0.05–0.10 tCO2/MWh. Tasmania remains the consistently lowest-intensity option across all hours. Operators with grid-connected flexible loads or battery charging schedules should target the 08:00–12:00 AEST window in NSW and SA for the best mainland carbon outcome, with Queensland offering limited opportunity absent a significant dispatch change.