Regional Outlook — VIC1: Monday 13 April 2026
The Victoria spot price sits at $115.68/MWh at 06:30 AEST, well above the session's overnight trough which saw prices collapse to near-zero and briefly negative between approximately 13:30–15:00 AEST — a stretch of more than 90 minutes where the market cleared at $0.00/MWh or below. The morning demand ramp has driven a sharp recovery, with total demand now at 5,214 MW and prices sustaining above $95/MWh since 17:00 AEST. The 24-hour price profile is characterised by an extreme intraday spread: sub-zero settlement during the midday window contrasts with a sustained corridor of $96–$131/MWh through the morning peak, reflecting classic autumn demand dynamics as solar output is absent in the evening and overnight periods.
The generation mix at the 06:00 AEST trading interval shows brown coal dominating at 2,134 MW, wind contributing 412 MW, gas OCGT at 110 MW, hydro at 16 MW, with solar at zero and gas CCGT offline. Renewable penetration sits at just 16.03% — the lowest point in the 24-hour carbon history dataset, which peaked at 41.19% around 15:00 AEST when wind output was stronger and demand was at its daily minimum. Carbon intensity is currently 1.0009 tCO2/MWh, the highest reading in the dataset, consistent with the elevated coal dispatch share and negligible renewable contribution at this time of evening. The intensity trended as low as 0.6981 tCO2/MWh during the afternoon minimum-demand window.
Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST half-hour (21:00 UTC) are clustering around $115–$131/MWh, with the most recent run at $114.96/MWh. The 07:30 AEST half-hour is priced more aggressively — the forecast series has been tracking $122–$156/MWh across successive predispatch runs, with the 08:01 AEST run at $156.31/MWh before pulling back to $124.77/MWh in the latest run. This upward revision and subsequent partial retraction in the 07:30 AEST forecast suggests dispatch conditions are sensitive to generator availability and interconnector flows as demand continues to build through the morning peak. Flexible load operators should treat the $120–$155/MWh range for 07:30 AEST as live.
On market notices: AEMO is reviewing prices for six consecutive intervals on 13 April between 15:50 and 16:15 AEST under clause 3.9.2B for manifestly incorrect inputs — these remain active and unresolved, meaning settlement outcomes for that window are not yet final. A Telstra Melbourne inbound telephony outage is scheduled for AEMO systems between 01:00–06:00 AEST on 14 April (today), with up to 15 minutes of reduced redundancy; calls will reroute via Perth. The Tasmanian transmission events involving multiple Farrell-area 220 kV lines that were reclassified as credible contingency events have since been resolved and reverted to non-credible status as of 13 April 20:25 AEST — the T-V-MNSP1 Basslink interconnector constraint sets invoked during that period