regional tas — TAS1

The spot price in Tasmania sits at **$88.16/MWh** as of 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 1,121.68 MW and climbing into the morning peak. Reviewing the 24-hour price history, the region has traded in a narrow band — predominantly between $85.92/MWh and $95.65/MWh — with only isolated excursions above that range, including a brief spike to $122.48/MWh and a single interval touching $104.26/MWh during the 09:00 AEST period. Overnight prices softened into the low-to-mid $70s/MWh across several intervals, reflecting reduced demand between roughly 13:30–16:00 AEST, before recovering to the current $88.16/MWh level as evening load builds.

The generation mix is entirely renewable. Hydro is contributing 563.83 MW and wind 187.23 MW, with gas OCGT sitting at zero output. Carbon intensity registers at **0 tCO2/MWh** and renewable penetration is **100%**, a position that has held consistently across every recorded interval in the carbon history dataset. No fossil fuel generation is active in the region.

Predispatch forecasts signal a step-up from the current $88.16/MWh. The 07:00 AEST interval (21:00 UTC) is forecast at **$88.16/MWh** in the most recent run, but earlier predispatch runs had that same interval priced as high as $147.84/MWh before progressively revising down as the dispatch horizon shortened — a pattern indicating initial uncertainty around evening peak conditions that has since resolved. The 07:30 AEST (21:30 UTC) interval is consistently forecast at **$96.18/MWh** across the most recent predispatch runs, suggesting prices are likely to lift modestly through the morning peak before easing. Load window data shows isolated "excellent"-rated intervals with prices in the $64–$76/MWh range flagged across mid-morning to early afternoon AEST, consistent with the softer midday demand profile seen in the price history.

Two market notices are directly relevant to Tasmania. A **power system events notice** (MN 141069) confirms the Farrell–Tribute 220 kV, Farrell–John Butters 220 kV, and Farrell–Mackintosh 110 kV lines — which tripped on 11 April due to lightning — have been returned to service and their classification has reverted to non-credible contingency, with constraint sets T-JB\_MC\_TI\_250 and F-T-JB\_MC\_TI\_N-2 revoked at 20:25 UTC on 13 April. This removes a binding constraint on the Basslink interconnector (T-V-MNSP1) that had been in place since 13 April. Additionally, prices for six consecutive intervals between 16:00 and 16:15 AEST on 13 April remain **subject to review** under NER clause 3.9.2B for manifestly incorrect inputs — traders with exposure to those intervals should monitor for potential repricing.