regional sa — SA1

The spot price in South Australia sits at $138/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, consistent with the dominant pricing band that has prevailed across much of the day. That reading is moderate relative to the session's range, which has swung from a low near $5.71/MWh in the early hours to a peak of $360.55/MWh during a sharp gas-driven spike between 12:50–13:00 AEST. The 24-hour average across the price history runs well above $150/MWh, reflecting persistent elevation through the morning peak, when prices clustered between $170–$230/MWh as demand climbed to a session high above 1,750 MW around 09:00 AEST. Demand now sits at 1,341 MW, easing through the post-evening shoulder.

The generation mix at the most recent trading interval (06:00 AEST) is dominated by gas, with gas CCGT contributing 230.53 MW and gas OCGT a further 109.71 MW — together accounting for approximately 94.6% of metered generation. Wind is contributing 19.36 MW and solar output is zero, consistent with post-sunset conditions. Renewable penetration sits at just 5.38%, the lowest point recorded across the full day; it reached a high of 34.28% during overnight hours when demand was below 1,000 MW and wind output was stronger. Carbon intensity is 0.5124 tCO2/MWh, up from a trough of 0.322 tCO2/MWh at approximately 01:30 AEST when wind penetration was at its peak. The trajectory through the afternoon and evening has been consistently upward as wind has faded and gas has absorbed the load.

Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST and 07:30 AEST half-hours show price signals ranging from $138 to $262/MWh across successive forecast runs, with the most recent predispatch for the 07:00 AEST interval printing $240.16/MWh. The spread between runs is wide — indicating material dispatch uncertainty — but the central tendency points to prices remaining elevated above $170/MWh through at least the early morning. Load window data indicates that off-peak pricing between roughly 09:00–12:00 AEST (UTC 23:00–02:00) could offer windows in the $9–$65/MWh range, presenting potential for flexible demand scheduling.

The most operationally relevant active notice for South Australia is the Forecast LOR1 condition (Market Notice 141048) flagging a capacity reserve shortfall in SA from 01:30–02:00 AEST on 14 April 2026 — today — with forecast reserve availability of 258 MW against a requirement of 406 MW, a 148 MW deficit. That notice has not been formally cancelled, and traders and grid engineers should monitor whether AEMO declares an actual LOR condition in that window, which could trigger administered pricing or emergency reserve activation. Separately, six intervals between 15:50 and 16:15 AEST on 13 April remain subject to AEMO price review under NER clause 3.9.2B for manifestly incorrect inputs; any revised outcomes from those intervals will affect settlement for participants exposed to that period.