commodity demand qld — QLD1

Queensland spot price sits at $120.52/MWh with demand at 6,359 MW as of 06:30 AEST, Tuesday 14 April 2026. That price level reflects the region's established evening pattern: demand is climbing back through the 6,000–6,400 MW range after a deep overnight trough that bottomed near 4,140 MW around 11:30 AEST, when prices turned negative (reaching as low as -$3.01/MWh) as supply comfortably exceeded system needs. The morning ramp from 14:00 AEST onward drove the sharpest price action of the day so far — demand surged from roughly 4,550 MW at 14:00 AEST to a session peak of 8,024 MW at 18:05 AEST, with prices spiking as high as $392.88/MWh at 15:30 AEST during that rapid 3,500 MW demand escalation. The price-to-demand relationship is stark: every 1,000 MW step up through the 6,000–8,000 MW corridor consistently pushed spot above $100/MWh, while the sub-5,000 MW overnight floor reliably produced near-zero or negative outcomes.

The demand trajectory from 18:05 AEST has been softening, declining from the 8,000 MW peak back to current levels near 6,360 MW, and prices have moderated accordingly — from the $100–140/MWh band seen during the 17:00–18:30 AEST window down to $120.52/MWh now. The generation mix at this interval is concentrated in black coal (2,815.57 MW) and hydro (85.92 MW), with solar contributing only 1.9 MW given the overnight timing, and grid stress scores remain elevated at 73.3. Carbon intensity is 0.8534 tCO2/MWh with renewables at just 3.02% of the mix at this hour.

Forward forecasts for the 07:00 AEST half-hour (21:00 UTC) are converging around $95.82/MWh, down from the $120/MWh range currently prevailing, consistent with continued demand softening as Queensland moves through the post-evening-peak wind-down. The 07:30 AEST (21:30 UTC) forecast drops further to approximately $73.81–75.80/MWh, indicating the market anticipates a further 500–800 MW demand reduction through the early morning hours. The QLD–NSW interconnector negative settlement residue constraint (NRM_QLD1_NSW1) that activated at 15:35 AEST and was cancelled at 16:15 AEST is no longer in force, removing a key transmission constraint that was influencing price outcomes during the peak period. Traders should expect prices to step down in two tranches as demand continues its descent toward the overnight trough, with the sub-$20/MWh (and likely negative) environment returning once demand falls back below the 4,500 MW threshold around 12:00–13:00 AEST today.