Carbon Forecast

Tasmania sits at 0.00 tCO2/MWh with 100% renewable penetration — hydro at 649 MW and wind at 164 MW account for all generation in the island state at 06:30 AEST. At the opposite end, Victoria is the highest-intensity region on the NEM right now at 1.028 tCO2/MWh, with brown coal supplying 2,111 MW against a renewable share of just 13.7%; wind contributes 337 MW but hydro is minimal at 16 MW and solar is offline. NSW sits at 0.786 tCO2/MWh with renewables at 10.7% — black coal dominates at 6,180 MW, with hydro adding 609 MW and wind 132 MW, while gas is absent from the mix. Queensland is at 0.853 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at only 3.0%, driven almost entirely by 2,816 MW of black coal and negligible solar and hydro. South Australia registers 0.526 tCO2/MWh — the second-lowest among mainland regions — on a gas-heavy mix of 256 MW CCGT and 165 MW OCGT with wind contributing just 22 MW and solar offline.

The overnight-to-early-morning period through today's data shows where intensity windows have moved. Victoria's lowest intensity across the dataset occurred around 05:00 AEST (0.698 tCO2/MWh, 41% renewables), driven by higher overnight wind output — that window has since closed as wind has eased and thermal generation has increased to meet the morning demand ramp. NSW saw its intraday low around 09:00–09:30 AEST (0.719–0.722 tCO2/MWh, ~18% renewables) as solar began contributing; with solar now at zero in the current 06:30 AEST interval, that midday dip will recur today as irradiance builds. Queensland's renewable contribution was meaningfully higher overnight — reaching 30% around 23:00 AEST — before collapsing to below 3% from 08:00 AEST onward, where it has remained flat, indicating wind is not a material factor today and only solar offers any intraday variation.

For carbon-sensitive scheduling today, the most actionable windows on the mainland are the solar-driven midday troughs in NSW (roughly 09:00–12:00 AEST, intensity likely to dip toward 0.72–0.73 tCO2/MWh) and any wind-supported overnight period in Victoria, which historically tracks below 0.80 tCO2/MWh when wind output is above 600 MW. SA's intensity is structurally moderate given its gas-dominated mix, but remains the lowest-intensity mainland option outside solar hours given no coal in its stack. Loads with flexibility to shift to the 10:00–13:00 AEST window in NSW or the post-midnight period in Victoria will capture the best mainland carbon outcomes today; Tasmania remains at zero intensity around the clock for any interconnected scheduling that can access Basslink capacity.