Regional Outlook — VIC1: Sunday 12 April 2026
The Victoria spot price sits at $55.56/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with demand at 5,137 MW and rising through the morning peak. That price represents a sharp step-up from the overnight session, where prices were persistently negative — ranging from around -$3 to -$12/MWh across the 22:00–06:00 AEST window — before transitioning positive around 17:45 AEST as demand climbed toward the morning ramp. The midday and afternoon periods saw prices consolidate between $31.69 and $70.32/MWh, with a brief intraday peak above $70/MWh around 00:15 AEST (14:15 UTC).
The current generation mix is dominated by brown coal at 2,213 MW, with wind contributing 774 MW, gas OCGT at 71 MW, hydro at 17 MW, solar at 0 MW (post-sunset), and gas CCGT offline. Renewables are contributing 25.73% of supply at this interval — a significant drop from the overnight period where wind kept renewable penetration above 50% for several consecutive hours, peaking near 57% around 07:00 AEST. Carbon intensity stands at 0.8928 tCO2/MWh, the highest level recorded across today's data set and up sharply from the 0.50 tCO2/MWh range that prevailed during the high-wind overnight period. The directional shift is clear: as wind output holds steady but demand has grown through the morning peak, brown coal's share of the mix has expanded and carbon intensity has tracked accordingly.
Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST interval (21:00 UTC) are converging on $55.56/MWh based on the most recent runs, consistent with the current spot. Earlier predispatch runs from around midnight had that interval priced as high as $94.73/MWh before successive revisions brought it down through the day. The 07:30 AEST interval (21:30 UTC) is currently forecast at $55.57/MWh. The load window data indicates a sharp price reduction is expected from approximately 08:00 AEST onward, with intervals from 08:00 to 10:30 AEST (22:00–00:30 UTC) forecast in the $8.95–$11/MWh range, and the 09:00–10:30 AEST band potentially dipping to near zero or negative as overnight supply conditions reassert. Flexible load operators should note the 08:00–10:30 AEST window as a strong consumption opportunity.
On market notices, there are no active reserve or constraint notices directly affecting VIC1 at this time. An SA LOR1 forecast for 14 April (01:30–02:00 AEST) was issued and subsequently cancelled yesterday. The VIC1-relevant Yallourn–Rowville 7 and 8 220kV reclassification notices from 11 April have been resolved with constraint sets revoked. A planned AEMO telco outage affecting Melbourne inbound lines is scheduled for 14 April 01:00–06:00 AEST with up to 15 minutes of reduced redundancy — low operational impact but worth noting for participants relying on AEMO voice contact during that window.