Regional Outlook — TAS1: Sunday 12 April 2026
The spot price in Tasmania sits at $85.92/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 1,015 MW. Over the prior 24 hours, prices ranged widely — from sub-$20/MWh during off-peak overnight intervals to a sustained run above $88/MWh through the morning peak, with the high-$80s level now holding into the evening ramp. The 24-hour price profile shows a clear pattern: deep discounts in the early hours (multiple intervals printing at $19–$32/MWh) gave way to a prolonged $88.18/MWh ceiling through the business day, before softening into the $60s during the midday trough, and recovering to the current $85.92/MWh as demand climbs back above 1,000 MW heading into Monday morning peak demand.
The generation mix is entirely hydro and wind. Hydro is contributing 540.53 MW and wind 154.56 MW, with gas OCGT sitting at zero output. Combined dispatch totals approximately 695 MW from local generation, with the Basslink interconnector (T-V-MNSP1) supplementing the balance of the ~1,016 MW load. Carbon intensity sits at 0 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at 100% — this has been consistent across every recorded interval throughout the past 24 hours.
Predispatch forecasts point to upward price pressure from here. The next interval (07:00 AEST, being 21:00 UTC) is forecast at $93.75/MWh, firming as demand builds through the Monday morning peak. Forecasts for 07:30–08:00 AEST sit in the $93.75–$95/MWh range, and the 08:30 AEST window edges toward $95–$96/MWh. The trajectory reflects typical Monday morning demand uplift, with the predispatch signal holding consistently in the low-to-mid $90s through most of today's business hours. No intervals in the near-term predispatch window show a material price retreat.
On market notices, the most operationally relevant item for Tasmania is the active Forecast LOR1 condition declared for South Australia on 14 April between 01:30–02:00 AEST (Notice 141048), with forecast reserves of only 258 MW against a requirement of 406 MW — this has the potential to affect Basslink flows if SA draws on interconnector capacity during that window. More directly, a series of contingency reclassification notices remain active for Tasmanian 220 kV transmission infrastructure — including the Gordon–Chapel Street No.1 and No.2 lines (Notice 141046/141047, now cancelled) and the Farrell–Tribute/John Butters/Mackintosh corridor, where a non-credible contingency event involving simultaneous line trips was recorded on 11 April (Notice 141036). While immediate constraint sets associated with the Gordon–Chapel Street lines have been revoked, grid engineers should note that the Farrell corridor has experienced repeated lightning-driven reclassifications over recent days, introducing intermittent binding constraints on T-V-MNSP1 export capacity.