regional sa — SA1

The South Australian spot price sits at $69.93/MWh at 06:00 AEST on 13 April, with total demand at 1,358.69 MW. This is a dramatic reversal from the extended negative pricing that dominated the overnight and pre-dawn period, where the RRP ran continuously negative — reaching a low of -$12.68/MWh around 11:30 AEST on 12 April — before prices surged sharply through the morning peak and held elevated for the bulk of the day, frequently touching $129.99/MWh through the 09:00–20:00 AEST window. The 24-hour average RRP has been materially elevated compared to the early-morning lows, reflecting a pattern of tight daytime supply once wind output softened.

The current generation mix is gas-dominated with solar output at zero. Gas CCGT is contributing 201.34 MW and gas OCGT 87.22 MW, with wind providing 42.29 MW — total metered output of approximately 331 MW, with the balance of the 1,358.69 MW demand being met via interconnector imports. Renewable penetration sits at just 12.78%, down sharply from the 90%+ levels recorded during the small-hours period when wind was running strongly and prices were deeply negative. Carbon intensity is now 0.4695 tCO2/MWh, the highest point in the 24-hour window, up from a low of 0.0346 tCO2/MWh at 06:30 AEST on 12 April. The contrast between overnight carbon intensity and current levels is stark — this is a function of wind output declining and gas carrying the local generation load.

Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00–08:30 AEST period point to prices in the $80–$103/MWh range, with considerable spread in the ensemble — some runs showing negative or near-zero prices for the 10:30–11:30 AEST window (suggesting wind recovery or solar onset on the interconnected grid), while others hold in the $80–$103/MWh band. Load window data indicates that the 10:30 AEST half-hour (00:30 UTC) has a cluster of forecast prices at or below zero, suggesting a solar-driven price dip is plausible as daylight builds. Prices are then expected to lift again through the afternoon and evening peak based on the pattern from the prior day, where $80–$130/MWh sustained from mid-morning through to 20:30 AEST.

The most operationally relevant active notice is Market Notice 141048, which declares a Forecast LOR1 condition for SA for the period 01:30–02:00 AEST on 14 April 2026. The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 406 MW against a minimum available of 258 MW — a 148 MW shortfall. This notice remains active and was not cancelled as of the last data update. A prior LOR1 declared for 12 April was cancelled at 13:40 AEST, indicating conditions remain sensitive. Traders and grid engineers should watch interconnector flows and reserve plant availability closely through tomorrow morning's pre-dawn window, when local wind output may again be insufficient to cover reserve obligations without thermal support.