Commodity Demand — QLD1: Sunday 12 April 2026
Queensland spot price sits at $66.79/MWh with total demand at 6,197 MW as of 06:30 AEST. Demand has climbed steadily from the overnight trough of around 3,555 MW (approx. 10:45 AEST) and is now on an upward trajectory heading into the Monday morning commercial load build. The price-demand relationship today is well-defined: the overnight period produced sustained negative pricing as low as -$25.01/MWh against demand below 3,600 MW, prices returned to zero around the 15:50–16:00 AEST mark as demand crossed 6,350 MW, and positive territory was re-established firmly once demand pushed through 6,800 MW from approximately 16:20 AEST onwards.
The morning ramp has been the dominant pricing driver today. Demand lifted from 5,382 MW at 15:00 AEST to 7,555 MW by 17:00 AEST — a rise of approximately 2,170 MW in two hours — which drove prices from negative territory up through $64–$92/MWh. The peak demand interval recorded so far is 7,859 MW at 18:20 AEST, coinciding with prices around $92.59/MWh. Since that peak, demand has eased back to 6,197 MW as morning commercial activity begins to flatten, and prices have softened accordingly into the mid-$60s.
The forward forecast for the 07:00 AEST half-hour (21:00 UTC) is consistently priced at $68–$83/MWh across multiple forecast runs, with the most recent run at 06:01 AEST pointing to $68.66/MWh — broadly in line with current spot. This suggests the market does not anticipate a material demand surge in the immediate term. The current generation mix of 1,934 MW black coal, 86 MW hydro, 3 MW solar, and negligible gas OCGT points to limited variable supply response, meaning any demand uplift above current levels will directly test dispatchable capacity and apply upward price pressure. With today being Monday, the commercial load build through 07:00–09:00 AEST is the key watch period; if demand rebounds above 7,500 MW as businesses come online, prices in the $85–$95/MWh range are consistent with what the market priced during the equivalent period today.
Grid stress sits at 68.6 out of 100 on current conditions. There are no active Queensland-specific market notices, and the SA LOR1 forecast for 14 April (insufficient reserve margin between 11:30–12:00 AEST) does not directly constrain Queensland dispatch today but is worth monitoring for any inter-regional flow impacts on the QNI interconnector through the week.