Carbon Forecast

Tasmania sits at 0.00 tCO2/MWh with 100% renewable generation — 541 MW of hydro and 155 MW of wind carrying the full load at 06:30 AEST. That position has held consistently across the entire dataset. South Australia is next at 0.47 tCO2/MWh with renewables now at just 13%, down sharply from above 90% overnight when wind was dominant; the current mix is 201 MW gas CCGT and 87 MW gas OCGT with only 42 MW of wind, reflecting the post-sunset collapse in solar and softening wind output. NSW sits at 0.79 tCO2/MWh (10% renewables), with 4,758 MW of black coal dominating and wind contributing 285 MW. QLD is the highest-intensity mainland region at 0.84 tCO2/MWh — 1,934 MW of black coal with just 4% renewable penetration and solar effectively absent. VIC is at 0.89 tCO2/MWh with 2,213 MW of brown coal and only 25% renewables despite 774 MW of wind on the system.

The intraday pattern across all mainland regions is clear from the data: SA, NSW, and VIC all recorded their lowest intensities in the pre-dawn to early-morning window (roughly 00:30–06:30 AEST) when overnight wind production was elevated and demand was low. SA reached as low as 0.03 tCO2/MWh at 06:30 AEST with renewables above 92%. NSW troughed near 0.68 tCO2/MWh around 10:30 AEST as solar added to wind output. VIC's cleanest window was the 07:00 AEST period at around 0.50 tCO2/MWh before demand ramped and brown coal output firmed. QLD showed minimal intraday variation, with intensity locked between 0.83–0.85 tCO2/MWh for most of the day as thermal generation dominated regardless of the hour.

For carbon-sensitive loads today, Tasmania remains the only region offering a near-zero intensity window at any point. On the mainland, the next viable low-intensity period is the overnight window commencing from approximately 22:00–23:00 AEST tonight, when solar drops out entirely but wind typically lifts and demand falls — this is where SA and VIC have historically shown their sharpest intensity reductions in this dataset. SA's overnight wind performance earlier in the dataset (91–93% renewable penetration) suggests that if wind conditions repeat, intensity there could return below 0.05 tCO2/MWh. Flexible loads in NSW and VIC should target the 23:00–02:00 AEST window for lowest achievable intensity. QLD offers no comparable green window given the structural absence of overnight renewables in the current mix.