regional vic — VIC1

Victoria's spot price sits at -$3.55/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with demand at 4,196 MW — a Sunday morning low following a sustained overnight period of negative pricing that reached as deep as -$25.32/MWh around 08:55 AEST yesterday. The 24-hour price trend has been firmly negative for the bulk of the period, with only a brief window of positive prices between roughly 18:30 and 19:45 AEST (peaking at $8.69/MWh during the morning demand ramp) breaking the pattern. Average pricing across the past 24 hours sits well below zero, reflecting persistent supply-side pressure throughout the day.

The generation mix at 06:30 AEST has wind contributing 1,593 MW and brown coal at 1,057 MW, with gas OCGT providing 100 MW of balancing capacity. Solar output is zero — consistent with pre-dawn conditions — and hydro is negligible at 0.32 MW. Gas CCGT is offline. Renewables are contributing 57.92% of the mix, and carbon intensity sits at 0.4925 tCO2/MWh, its lowest point in today's record and down from an overnight high of 0.6722 tCO2/MWh at 09:30 AEST. The wind-heavy overnight profile has driven that improvement, with intensity tracking broadly between 0.49 and 0.54 tCO2/MWh for most of the past eight hours.

Predispatch forecasts point to prices remaining negative through at least the 07:00–08:00 AEST window, with near-term targets clustered around -$2.50 to -$2.80/MWh. Load window modelling shows materially deeper negative prices forecast from 08:00 AEST onwards — windows between 08:30 and 13:30 AEST are showing indicative prices ranging from -$13/MWh to as low as -$63/MWh — consistent with the expected solar generation ramp on a Sunday with suppressed demand. Flexible and shiftable loads with access to spot-exposed tariffs have a strong incentive to maximise consumption across the mid-morning period.

The one directly VIC-relevant market notice from the active set is the reclassification and subsequent cancellation of the Yallourn–Rowville 7 and 8 220 kV lines (notices 141039 and 141041), which were briefly elevated to credible contingency status due to lightning between approximately 01:27 and 02:29 AEST before reverting. Those constraints are now cleared. The bulk of remaining active notices relate to TAS1 transmission reclassifications involving the T-V-MNSP1 Basslink interconnector constraint sets (F-T-CSGO, F-T-FARE_N-2); while these do not directly bind Victorian dispatch, any tightening of Basslink import capacity could marginally affect Victorian price outcomes if Tasmanian lightning activity resumes. No load shedding events or supply adequacy concerns are active for VIC1.