regional tas — TAS1

The spot price in Tasmania sits at $60.18/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, down materially from the session peak of $96.22/MWh hit twice overnight and well clear of the negative prices recorded around 15:25–15:40 AEST (-$13.96/MWh) when surplus generation briefly overwhelmed local demand. The 24-hour price trend shows a clear pattern: elevated prices in the $70–$88/MWh range during the morning demand peak (18:30–19:30 AEST) giving way to a sustained floor near $50.24/MWh through the overnight trough, before recovering to the current mid-$60s level as demand climbs from a low of around 909 MW back toward 966 MW. The $88.24/MWh cap print appeared repeatedly across the session — a signal of binding constraint activity rather than genuine scarcity — consistent with the interconnector constraint sets invoked on the Gordon–Chapel St 220kV corridor.

Generation is running entirely from hydro and wind. Hydro is contributing 358 MW and wind 267.72 MW, with gas OCGT at zero output. Total local generation sits at approximately 626 MW against demand of 966 MW, implying Tasmania is drawing the balance across Basslink (T-V-MNSP1). Carbon intensity is 0 tCO2/MWh and renewable penetration is 100%, a position that has held continuously across every 30-minute interval in the data set — the full 24-hour carbon history shows unbroken zerointensity operation.

Predispatch forecasts for the next two hours are firmly anchored at $60.18/MWh for the 07:00 AEST target, with some model runs projecting dips to the low $20/MWh range around 08:00–09:30 AEST and again at 09:30–10:00 AEST before recovering. These low-price windows are rated "excellent" quality by the load optimisation model, with implied savings of ~$79/MWh against the reference price — worth watching for flexible industrial or battery charging opportunities. By 16:00–17:00 AEST the forecast distribution tightens back toward $58–$60/MWh, suggesting a stable, moderate-price afternoon absent fresh constraint events.

The key risk to watch is network security on the Farrell-area 220kV and Gordon–Chapel St corridors, both of which have been reclassified between credible and non-credible contingency status multiple times over the past 36 hours due to lightning activity — at least eight reclassification notices affect TAS1 in the active notice stack. A non-credible contingency event at 13:57 AEST yesterday saw the Farrell–Tribute 220kV, Farrell–John Butters 220kV, and Farrell–Mackintosh 110kV lines trip simultaneously; AEMO did not instruct load shedding and no bulk load was disconnected. The F-T-CSGO and F-T-FARE_N-2 constraint sets, both with T-V-MNSP1 (Basslink) on the left-hand side, are the primary transmission levers constraining interconnector flows when these corridors are vulnerable. Traders and engineers with Basslink-dependent positions should monitor network notices closely given the ongoing storm risk across the western and central Tasmanian transmission network.