regional sa — SA1

The South Australia spot price sits at -$3.45/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with demand at 1,230.7 MW. Negative pricing has dominated the past 24 hours — the region has traded below zero for the overwhelming majority of dispatch intervals since approximately 07:15 AEST yesterday, with the deepest excursions reaching -$20/MWh in the pre-dawn window (around 00:50–01:40 AEST) and again near 14:50–15:00 AEST. A brief positive spike to +$8–$9/MWh occurred between roughly 19:30 and 20:15 AEST before prices fell back negative. The 24-hour average is firmly in negative territory, consistent with sustained wind generation outpacing low Sunday demand.

The current generation mix is dominated by wind at 582.81 MW, with gas CCGT contributing 40 MW and gas OCGT and solar both at 0 MW. Renewable penetration sits at 93.58% and carbon intensity is 0.0315 tCO2/MWh — both figures consistent with the sustained high-renewable pattern observed across the full 24-hour period, where renewable penetration has ranged between approximately 84% (overnight trough) and a peak of 96.28% around 19:00 AEST. Carbon intensity peaked at 0.1384 tCO2/MWh near 11:00 AEST when wind was lower relative to demand, before recovering strongly through the morning.

Predispatch forecasts indicate prices are expected to remain negative across the near-term horizon. The 07:00 AEST half-hour is forecast at -$3/MWh, with the 07:30 AEST interval forecast at -$2.64/MWh. Looking further ahead into today's early hours (UTC), forecasts show prices deepening to -$7.50/MWh around 08:00–09:00 AEST, with some intervals forecast as low as -$20/MWh in the 10:00–12:30 AEST window as wind generation is expected to remain strong against subdued Sunday demand. The load window data consistently rates upcoming intervals as "excellent" for flexible demand, with implied savings of up to $190+/MWh against the market cap.

All active market notices are directed at the Tasmanian network (TAS1), covering repeated reclassification of several 220kV transmission circuits — including the Gordon–Chapel St and Farrell–Reece lines — between non-credible and credible contingency status due to ongoing lightning activity. These notices invoke and revoke constraints on the T-V-MNSP1 interconnector (Basslink). While this does not directly affect SA1 network topology, any sustained restriction on Basslink flows can influence NEM-wide dispatch and interconnector flows through Victoria, which in turn has second-order effects on SA pricing. No SA-specific network or generation notices are active at this time.