Commodity Demand — QLD1: Saturday 11 April 2026
Queensland spot price sits at $78.08/MWh with demand at 5,663 MW as of 06:30 AEST, well down from today's intraday peak of 8,157 MW reached around 17:10 AEST. The price-demand relationship across today's data is stark: when demand climbed through the morning ramp from roughly 3,950 MW at the overnight trough (around 11:05 AEST) to the 8,000+ MW morning peak band, prices surged from negative territory — hitting -$8.80/MWh at the trough — to a sustained $92–$117/MWh range between approximately 17:00 and 18:30 AEST. A brief spike to $150.21/MWh occurred at 22:15 AEST as demand held around 6,913 MW during the midday period, pointing to a tight supply stack at that load level on a Sunday.
The overnight-to-morning price trajectory is the clearest signal in today's data. Demand fell to its floor just after 11:00 AEST, and prices tracked negative for an extended stretch from roughly 07:25 through to 14:00 AEST — over six consecutive hours of sub-zero pricing — as supply comfortably exceeded load. The transition out of that negative zone was sharp: from -$5/MWh at 14:00 AEST to $50/MWh by 15:20 AEST in under 90 minutes, driven entirely by the morning demand ramp accelerating through 5,500 MW and beyond. Price sensitivity is clearly non-linear, with the supply stack steepening rapidly once demand clears approximately 6,000 MW.
Looking ahead through the rest of today (Sunday 12 April), the forecast and load window data point to prices returning to and remaining in negative territory from around 07:30 AEST onward, deepening progressively through the overnight trough window — forecasts show -$25 to -$65/MWh in the 09:30–10:00 AEST band, with the steepest negative outcomes around 08:00–09:30 AEST. This is consistent with Sunday's typically lower commercial and industrial demand profile suppressing load well below the levels seen today during the morning peak. The most recent 30-minute forecast for the 07:00 AEST interval sits at $62.95/MWh, indicating the current $78/MWh level will moderate as demand continues to ease from its present 5,663 MW.
One market notice warrants attention for demand-side context: AEMO declared unit MPP_2 non-conforming in Queensland between 22:05 and 22:15 AEST today at -15 MW, coinciding with the $119–$150/MWh price spike in that window. While the non-conformance itself is modest in magnitude, it occurred at a moment when the supply stack had limited headroom above the ~6,900 MW demand level, amplifying price response. No load-shedding events are recorded for Queensland across the data period.