Carbon Forecast

NEM carbon intensity sits at sharply contrasting levels across regions at 06:30 AEST. Tasmania is at 0.00 tCO2/MWh on 100% renewables — hydro at 358 MW and wind at 268 MW covering all local demand with zero thermal commitment. South Australia is at 0.03 tCO2/MWh with 93.6% renewable penetration; wind is supplying 583 MW while a 40 MW gas CCGT unit provides the only emissions-bearing output. Victoria sits at 0.49 tCO2/MWh with 57.9% renewables — 1,593 MW of wind is the dominant source, but 1,057 MW of brown coal and 100 MW of gas OCGT hold intensity well above the southern pair. NSW is at 0.77 tCO2/MWh (12.8% renewables), with black coal at 4,329 MW accounting for the vast majority of output and wind contributing just 437 MW. Queensland is the highest in the NEM at 0.84 tCO2/MWh — black coal at 1,947 MW dominates, renewables are at 4.3%, and there is effectively no solar or wind contribution at this hour beyond negligible rooftop and hydro.

The generation mix driving these outcomes is straightforward: NSW and Queensland are both running predominantly on coal at night-time load levels with minimal wind and no utility solar, anchoring their intensity near or above 0.77–0.84 tCO2/MWh. Victoria's wind fleet is keeping its intensity lower despite the brown coal baseload, but it remains the mid-tier market. SA's near-zero intensity reflects its wind-heavy resource base operating well relative to demand right now, with the interconnector likely absorbing any export surplus.

For carbon-sensitive loads, the actionable green windows today are clear by region. Tasmania and SA offer the lowest-intensity consumption opportunity through the entire morning and into the afternoon — SA's data shows intensity has been consistently in the 0.02–0.05 tCO2/MWh range across the last 24 hours with renewables holding above 90%, and that profile is likely to persist through the solar generation window from approximately 08:00–17:00 AEST as rooftop and utility solar add to wind output. Victoria's lowest-intensity windows occurred around 07:30–08:30 AEST in the prior day's data (dipping to 0.45 tCO2/MWh at 62% renewables) and a similar solar-assisted trough can be expected again this morning from roughly 09:00–15:00 AEST. NSW and Queensland offer no near-term low-intensity windows; solar penetration in both states will lift renewables modestly through midday but coal baseload will keep intensity above 0.70 tCO2/MWh in NSW and above 0.80 tCO2/MWh in Queensland for the foreseeable day. Carbon-sensitive industrial loads in those regions should plan flex consumption around any interconnector-supported periods rather than expecting local renewable penetration to shift materially today.