Regional Outlook — VIC1: Friday 10 April 2026

Victoria's spot price sits at $0/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, essentially flat after a prolonged run of negative pricing that has characterised the entire overnight and morning period. The 24-hour price history shows prices were negative for virtually every interval from 06:30 last night through to now, with the deepest negative prices occurring between 14:15–15:15 AEST (around -$33/MWh) driven by generation surpassing demand during low-consumption hours. Total demand currently sits at 4,429 MW, well below the overnight peak of around 5,930 MW seen during the morning run-up, consistent with a quiet Saturday profile. A negative settlement residue event on the NSW–VIC interconnector was active from 19:00–19:45 AEST last night (market notices 141014/141018), indicating VIC was oversupplied relative to NSW absorption capacity during that window, though that constraint has since been cancelled.

The current generation mix (06:30 AEST) totals approximately 2,573 MW from metered sources: wind is contributing 1,375.8 MW, brown coal 1,086 MW, gas OCGT 111.2 MW, hydro 0.22 MW, and solar at zero as expected post-sunset. Renewable penetration sits at 53.47% and carbon intensity is 0.543 tCO2/MWh. Both metrics have shifted modestly from their best daytime readings — carbon intensity reached a low of 0.461 tCO2/MWh around 10:00–10:30 AEST this morning when renewables peaked above 58–59% penetration. The current uptick in intensity reflects wind's dominance of the renewable contribution at this hour, with the overnight solar absence increasing the relative share of brown coal in the mix.

Predispatch forecasts point to continued negative pricing through the remainder of the overnight period, with the 21:00 AEST half-hour forecast at -$0.10/MWh and the 21:30 AEST interval at approximately -$2.80/MWh. Load window data indicates deeper negative pricing is forecast between roughly 09:00–13:30 AEST today (Saturday), with indicative interval prices ranging from -$34/MWh to as low as -$68/MWh during the 13:00–14:00 AEST window. This is a classic weekend low-demand, high-wind profile — Saturday demand will be structurally lower than yesterday's weekday levels, and with wind generation currently at 1,376 MW and likely to remain elevated, sustained negative pricing during daylight hours is the base case. Flexible loads and storage operators should note the extended negative price window as a consumption or charging opportunity.

One active market notice directly relevant to VIC1: RYANCWF1 (Ryan Corner Wind Farm) was declared non-conforming at 20:35 AEST yesterday for a 139 MW deviation under constraint NC-V_RYANCWF1, for a brief one-interval period. The Yallourn–Rowville 7 and 8 220 kV lines were reclassified as a credible contingency due to lightning earlier in the day but that reclassification was cancelled at 20:49 AEST — no constraint sets were invoked and there is no ongoing transmission restriction on those circuits. The bulk of remaining active notices relate to Tasmanian network contingencies from overnight lightning activity