regional tas — TAS1
The spot price in Tasmania sits at $72.60/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 1,009.6 MW. Reviewing the past 24 hours of intervals, prices have been notably volatile — oscillating between negative territory (hitting -$11.98/MWh in the early hours around 01:35–02:00 AEST) and repeated spikes to $88.20/MWh during morning and midday peaks. The volume-weighted average across the visible history sits in the low-to-mid $60s/MWh range, meaning the current $72.60/MWh sits above that average, reflecting a firmer post-dawn demand profile as Saturday load builds.
Wind and hydro are splitting Tasmania's generation evenly, with wind contributing 272.6 MW and hydro 273.8 MW at the latest dispatch interval. Gas OCGT output sits at zero. Combined, that puts renewable generation at 100% of Tasmania's in-region output, with carbon intensity recorded at 0 tCO2/MWh — a position that has held continuously across every recorded interval in the past 24-plus hours. The generation mix is well balanced between the two zero-emission sources with no thermal backstop required at this time.
Predispatch forecasts for the next two half-hours tell a slightly mixed story. The 07:00 AEST interval (21:00 UTC) is flagged at $88.24/MWh in the most recent predispatch run — a notable step up from the $75.90/MWh that was consistently forecast for that interval through most of the day — while the 07:30 AEST interval is forecast at $75.03/MWh. The load window data indicates that prices are expected to ease through the overnight period, with intervals from around 10:00–14:00 AEST forecast in the $20–$42/MWh range — flagged as "excellent" value windows for flexible or deferrable loads.
On the network side, Tasmania has been subject to an unusually high volume of lightning-related contingency reclassifications over the past 18 hours, affecting multiple 110kV and 220kV corridors across the state. The most operationally significant was the actual trip of the Farrell–Reece No.1 and No.2 220kV lines at 16:46 AEST on Friday, confirmed as a non-credible contingency event caused by lightning (Market Notice 141012); no load shedding was required. The Farrell–John Butters and Farrell–Rosebery–Newton–Queenstown lines remain reclassified as a credible contingency event due to ongoing lightning activity as of the most recent notice (141026, issued 05:02 AEST). The Burnie–Port Latta–Smithton 110kV double-circuit has since been cleared (Notice 141027, cancellation at 06:04 AEST). Traders should monitor the Farrell corridor reclassification closely — constraint set invocations on those lines have previously bound the Basslink interconnector (T-V-MNSP1), which can materially affect Tasmanian export capability and price separation from Victoria.