regional sa — SA1

The spot price in South Australia sits at $0/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, capping a prolonged period of negative pricing that has defined the region's trading day. Over the past 24 hours, prices have been negative for virtually every interval, ranging from around -$3/MWh through to a session low of -$34.90/MWh recorded near 14:20 AEST. The 24-hour average sits well below zero, reflecting sustained oversupply conditions against a Saturday demand profile that peaks at around 1,744 MW mid-morning before easing to the current 1,293 MW. The depth and persistence of negative pricing signals that dispatchable generation is either running at minimum load or unable to back down quickly enough to match the low weekend demand.

Wind is contributing 414 MW and gas CCGT is contributing 43 MW, with solar at 0 MW as generation data reflects the post-sunset interval. No gas OCGT output is recorded. Renewable penetration sits at 90.6% at the current interval, consistent with the day's pattern — renewable share has tracked between roughly 89% and 97% across today's intervals, reaching its peak of 96.64% around 21:00 AEST during peak solar and wind combined output. Carbon intensity is 0.0461 tCO2/MWh currently, with today's daytime low reaching 0.0165 tCO2/MWh at 21:00 AEST when renewable penetration was highest. The gas CCGT component is providing the marginal carbon contribution; no coal generation is present in the SA mix.

Pre-dispatch forecasts point to prices remaining slightly negative or near zero through the next two intervals — the 07:00 AEST half-hour is forecast at around -$0.10/MWh and the 07:30 AEST half-hour at approximately -$1.03/MWh. Load window signals for the overnight period (09:30–13:30 AEST) show forecast clearing prices in the range of -$27/MWh to -$70/MWh across multiple windows, all rated "excellent" for demand shifting or flexible load scheduling. This indicates the market expects wind output to remain strong and demand to stay low through the early hours of Saturday, sustaining deep negative pricing conditions well into the morning.

There are no active market notices directly affecting SA1. The notices in the feed are entirely attributable to TAS1 contingency reclassifications due to lightning activity on Tasmanian 110 kV and 220 kV transmission lines, plus VIC1 contingency events and a settlements residue notice for the NSW–VIC interconnector — none of which carry direct constraint implications for South Australia in the current dispatch. Traders and grid engineers with flexible loads or battery storage assets in SA should note the extended negative price window as a potential arbitrage opportunity, while generators with dispatch obligations should monitor the pre-dispatch curve for any upward price recovery as demand lifts through the Saturday morning period.