Carbon Forecast

Tasmania sits at 0.00 tCO2/MWh with 100% renewable generation (wind 273 MW, hydro 274 MW) and has maintained that position across every interval in today's data. South Australia is next at 0.05 tCO2/MWh with renewables at 90.6%, driven entirely by wind at 414 MW with minimal gas CCGT backup (43 MW). These two regions represent the lowest-intensity options on the NEM right now. Victoria sits at 0.54 tCO2/MWh with renewables at 53.5% — wind is supplying 1,376 MW against 1,086 MW of brown coal and 111 MW of gas OCGT. NSW and Queensland are the highest-intensity regions at 0.81 tCO2/MWh and 0.85 tCO2/MWh respectively; NSW generation is dominated by 5,031 MW of black coal with wind contributing only 457 MW (8.3% renewable), while Queensland's 2,161 MW of black coal accounts for the bulk of dispatch with solar and hydro adding a combined 89 MW and renewables at just 3.9%.

The pattern across today's data shows that SA's lowest-intensity window ran through the mid-morning to mid-afternoon period (approximately 07:00–15:00 AEST), where intensity dipped as low as 0.0165 tCO2/MWh at 21:30 AEST (11:30 UTC) with renewables reaching 96.6%. That window has now passed as the solar contribution has zeroed out after sunset, and wind slightly eased through the afternoon, nudging intensity up from its intraday lows. NSW showed a brief improvement around 09:00–09:30 AEST (intensity ~0.69 tCO2/MWh, renewables ~18.6%), likely solar-driven, before climbing back above 0.80 tCO2/MWh once solar output fell — a pattern that will not repeat tonight. Queensland's intensity has been essentially flat above 0.84 tCO2/MWh since mid-morning with renewables locked below 4%, indicating no meaningful solar or wind contribution is currently offsetting coal dispatch.

For carbon-sensitive loads planning the remainder of today (post-20:30 AEST), Tasmania and SA remain the best placement options. Tasmania's 0.00 tCO2/MWh position is stable overnight given its hydro-wind mix requires no solar. SA's overnight intensity will tick upward modestly as wind can fluctuate and gas provides balancing, but based on today's overnight data from the early hours (midnight–06:00 AEST, 0.026–0.056 tCO2/MWh), it is likely to remain well below 0.10 tCO2/MWh through tonight. Victoria should hold in the 0.50–0.57 tCO2/MWh range overnight depending on wind output. NSW and Queensland offer no near-term green windows; the next opportunity in those regions will be tomorrow morning's solar ramp, broadly from 07:00 AEST onward, replicating today's brief mid-morning dip. Carbon-sensitive scheduling in NSW and QLD should target the 08:00–10:00 AEST window tomorrow.