regional vic — VIC1
The Victoria spot price sits at -$3.09/MWh at 06:35 AEST, and has been negative for the vast majority of the past 24 hours. The overnight trough reached -$18.45/MWh around 07:05 AEST, with prices recovering toward zero during the morning peak before settling back into negative territory through the afternoon and evening. Total demand is currently 4,623 MW, well off the morning peak of around 6,012 MW recorded near 17:45 AEST. Across the 24-hour window, sustained negative pricing reflects supply consistently outpacing demand — a pattern that has persisted through both overnight low-demand periods and into the daytime.
Wind is the dominant source in the current generation mix at 1,661 MW, followed by brown coal at 1,056 MW and gas OCGT at 110 MW. Hydro contributes 34 MW, while solar is at zero output given the overnight settlement time of the latest data (06:00 UTC / 16:00 AEST). Gas CCGT is offline. Renewables are contributing 59.25% of generation at the latest read, with carbon intensity sitting at 0.4752 tCO2/MWh. Over the past 24 hours, intensity has ranged from a high of around 0.582 tCO2/MWh during early-morning low-wind periods to a low of 0.454 tCO2/MWh, tracking inversely with wind output.
Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00–07:30 AEST window (21:00–21:30 UTC) point to prices near -$0.10/MWh, a modest firming from current negative levels as overnight demand begins building. The load window data shows the deepest negative prices forecast between 10:30 and 13:30 AEST today (-$34 to -$60/MWh range across multiple intervals), suggesting a pronounced midday surplus as solar generation ramps. This creates a clear signal for flexible loads and battery charging to target that window. The predispatch 21:30 UTC target is consistently forecast at -$3.40 to -$3.55/MWh across multiple runs, indicating reasonable confidence in modest negative pricing continuing through the early morning.
On market notices, two VIC1-specific contingency reclassifications from lightning activity are active today: the Eildon PS – Mt Beauty No.1 and No.2 220 kV lines were reclassified as credible contingency events multiple times across the day due to lightning in the vicinity, most recently cancelled at 03:19 AEST this morning with no constraint sets invoked on either occasion. The Yallourn – Rowville 7 and 8 220 kV lines underwent the same reclassification cycle, with the cancellation confirmed at 23:39 AEST last night after the V-ROYP78_R_N-2 constraint set was revoked — no interconnector flows were constrained on the left-hand side. A non-conformance notice was also issued for MERCER01 (VIC1) covering a 10 MW deviation during a 15-minute window at 23:15–23:30 AEST. No constraints remain invoked on VIC1 lines at this time.