regional tas — TAS1

Tasmania's spot price sits at $50.20/MWh at 06:35 AEST, a meaningful step down from the elevated $80–$96/MWh range that dominated the 07:00–19:00 AEST window. Total demand is 1,040 MW. The 24-hour price history shows a clear pattern: prices held stubbornly above $80/MWh through the morning and midday peaks, dipped into negative territory briefly around 05:00–05:10 AEST (-$12.96 to -$11.96/MWh), then recovered sharply before softening again into the current interval. The overnight average was broadly in the $58–$75/MWh band during low-demand hours, making today's weighted average tracking well above the current spot.

The generation mix at the most recent dispatch interval (06:30 AEST) is hydro at 464 MW and wind at 240 MW, with gas OCGT contributing 0 MW. Combined output sits at 704 MW against 1,040 MW demand, with the Basslink interconnector (T-V-MNSP1) carrying the balance from Victoria. Carbon intensity is 0 tCO2/MWh at 100% renewable penetration — a condition that has held across virtually the entire recorded history today, with only a brief exception at the 14:30 AEST half-hour (0.033 tCO2/MWh, 94.95% renewable) attributable to a minor gas dispatch event. The OCGT is offline now and the zero-intensity profile is sustained.

Predispatch forecasts for tonight's evening period point to prices settling in the $50.20–$75.90/MWh range across the 07:00–09:30 AEST half-hours (UTC 21:00–23:30), with the most recent forecast runs converging on $50.20/MWh for the 07:00 AEST interval. The overnight outlook (10:30 AEST onwards, UTC 00:30+) shows load windows dropping to $18–$22/MWh across multiple half-hours between approximately 11:30–14:00 AEST, rated "excellent" by the predispatch model — consistent with Tasmania's characteristic overnight price softness when hydro dispatch eases and Basslink flow direction can shift.

On market notices, two TAS1 contingency reclassifications from lightning activity are active and relevant. AEMO reclassified the Farrell–John Butters and Farrell–Rosebery–Newton–Queenstown lines as a credible contingency event at 03:07 AEST due to lightning, then cancelled that reclassification at 04:09 AEST as lightning cleared. Separately, the Sheffield–George Town 1 & 2 220kV lines were reclassified as a credible contingency at 20:14 AEST last night with constraint set T-GTSH_N-2 invoked — this constraint sits on the T-V-MNSP1 interconnector LHS and is material to Basslink transfer limits; that reclassification was subsequently cancelled at 22:19 AEST following lightning clearance. No TAS1 constraints remain active from these events, but traders with Basslink-exposed positions should note the lightning activity across the state's transmission network overnight and the potential for rapid constraint reinvocation if conditions return.