regional sa — SA1

The spot price in South Australia sits at -$3/MWh as of 06:35 AEST, consistent with a sustained period of negative pricing that has persisted for the vast majority of the past 24 hours. The 24-hour price history shows prices ranging from a low of -$59.04/MWh (hit briefly around 18:30 AEST yesterday) to a brief positive excursion of +$2.13/MWh during the early-to-mid afternoon, with the overwhelming majority of intervals settling between -$3/MWh and -$15/MWh. Total demand sits at 1,418.71 MW, a relatively modest autumn load level that is contributing to the sustained oversupply condition.

The current generation mix is dominated by wind at 798.77 MW, with gas CCGT contributing 82.02 MW and gas OCGT and solar both at 0 MW — solar output is zero given the overnight timestamp. Renewable penetration stands at 90.69%, and the grid carbon intensity is 0.0456 tCO2/MWh. Over the past 24 hours, renewable penetration has consistently held above 86%, reaching a peak of 94.26% in the early hours, with carbon intensity as low as 0.0281 tCO2/MWh during that same period. The step-up in intensity from roughly 0.029 tCO2/MWh overnight to the current 0.0456 tCO2/MWh reflects the gas CCGT unit providing grid support services as solar drops off and wind output fluctuates.

Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST and 07:30 AEST trading periods point to prices remaining near zero to slightly negative, in the range of -$0.04/MWh to -$0.10/MWh — a mild recovery from deeper negative territory but still well below any positive return for thermal generators. The load window data signals a continuation of deeply negative prices through the morning into the early hours of 10 April AEST, with forecast windows regularly pricing between -$20/MWh and -$59/MWh across the 09:00–13:30 AEST period, driven by expected solar generation ramping into low autumn demand.

The only active market notice directly affecting SA1 is the now-cancelled reclassification of the Penola West–South East 1 132kV and Kincraig–Penola West 1 132kV lines, which had been briefly elevated to credible contingency status due to lightning activity — that event cleared at 03:14 AEST today with no constraint sets invoked and no ongoing network impact. Traders should note the recent history of voltage-driven AEMO intervention directions in SA (issued on both 5 and 6 April), which reflect AEMO's ongoing vigilance around system strength and voltage management in this region during high-renewable, low-synchronous-generation conditions. No active LOR notices or intervention events are in force for SA as of this briefing.