Carbon Forecast

Carbon intensity across the NEM sits at sharply contrasting levels at 06:30 AEST. Tasmania registers 0.00 tCO2/MWh at 100% renewable penetration, driven entirely by hydro (464 MW) and wind (240 MW) with no thermal on the system. South Australia is at 0.046 tCO2/MWh with 90.7% renewables — wind at 799 MW accounts for nearly all generation, with only 82 MW of gas CCGT balancing the residual load. These two regions are effectively decarbonised right now. Victoria sits at 0.478 tCO2/MWh with 59.1% renewables; wind is contributing 1,642 MW against 1,054 MW of brown coal and 107 MW of gas OCGT, producing a mid-range intensity that has held broadly steady across the day's data. NSW and Queensland are the highest-intensity regions on the NEM: NSW is at 0.812 tCO2/MWh with only 7.8% renewables, its grid dominated by 5,585 MW of black coal and negligible hydro or gas output at this interval; Queensland is the highest at 0.852 tCO2/MWh with just 3.2% renewables, running 2,661 MW of black coal and minimal contributions from hydro, solar, and gas OCGT.

The trajectory through the day's data shows NSW intensity peaked between 0.839–0.853 tCO2/MWh during the midday and afternoon period (roughly 21:30–00:00 UTC, or 07:30–10:00 AEST) when solar penetration was at its lowest and black coal ran near full output. It has eased slightly into the current interval but remains above 0.81 tCO2/MWh. Queensland has been essentially flat above 0.844 tCO2/MWh since the 08:00 AEST mark, with renewables locked below 3.5% all day — solar is contributing just 2.7 MW at this interval, effectively zero contribution. South Australia, by contrast, has maintained sub-0.066 tCO2/MWh intensity across the entire 24-hour dataset, with wind output sustaining renewable penetration above 87% at every interval.

For carbon-sensitive loads, the actionable green windows today are clear. Tasmania and South Australia are at or near their lowest intensity right now and that position is consistent across the dataset — there is no material improvement expected later, so scheduling is viable at any point. Victoria's lowest-intensity intervals clustered around 05:30–06:30 AEST (0.454 tCO2/MWh, ~61% renewables) and that window has largely passed; the evening period shows intensity drifting back toward 0.48 tCO2/MWh as wind holds up, which remains the best available window for the rest of today. In NSW and Queensland, no meaningful low-intensity window appears in today's data — both regions are coal-dominant across all intervals and solar penetration at this autumn date is insufficient to materially shift the mix. Carbon-sensitive operators in those regions should consider inter-regional scheduling or defer discretionary loads if access to SA or Tasmanian grid signals is available via their energy procurement structure.