regional vic — VIC1

Victoria's spot price sits at -$2.50/MWh at 06:30 AEST, extending a sustained negative price run that began around midday and has persisted through the afternoon and into the evening. This represents a dramatic contrast to the morning peak, where prices climbed above $145/MWh between 07:15 and 08:00 AEST as demand reached its daily high of 6,233 MW. The current demand of 4,580 MW is well off that peak, and the market has been long for several hours. Total demand through the negative-price window has tracked between roughly 3,700 MW and 4,600 MW, comfortably below the level needed to absorb all committed generation at positive prices.

The generation mix at 06:30 AEST is dominated by wind at 1,807 MW and brown coal at 1,201 MW, with gas OCGT contributing 107 MW, hydro at a negligible 0.22 MW, and solar at zero — consistent with post-sunset conditions. Renewables are contributing 58% of the grid mix, per the latest carbon intensity interval, reflecting strong overnight wind output that has been the primary driver of the extended negative price episode. Carbon intensity sits at 0.4926 tCO2/MWh, down sharply from this morning's peak of around 1.07 tCO2/MWh when wind penetration was as low as 10% during the pre-dawn thermal-dominated period. The trajectory through today has been a steady improvement: renewable penetration climbed from under 6% at the start of the UTC trading day to 58% now, compressing intensity by more than half.

Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST interval (21:00 UTC) are centred around -$2.50/MWh based on the most recent runs, with earlier forecasts ranging from near zero to low positive values. The load window data confirms the negative price environment is expected to persist well into the overnight period, with forecast prices ranging from -$6.50/MWh to as deep as -$33.78/MWh across 30-minute windows through to approximately 16:30 AEST (02:30 UTC), as wind generation remains elevated and demand stays in its overnight trough. The deepest negative windows are forecast around the 12:00–14:00 AEST (02:00–04:00 UTC) period. The morning demand ramp — which yesterday drove prices above $160/MWh from around 06:30 AEST — will be the key watch point for today's price recovery.

The one active market notice with potential regional relevance is the SA1 contingency reclassification involving the Penola West–South East 1 132kV and Kincraig–Penola West 1 132kV lines, which were temporarily upgraded to credible contingency status due to lightning before being reverted at 03:14 AEST (13:14 UTC). No constraint sets were invoked and the classification has returned to non-credible, so there is no binding transmission impact on VIC1 flows at this time. No VIC1-specific market notices are active. The MT PASA notice from 7 April confirms no Low Reserve Conditions are forecast across the NEM in the near term.