Carbon Forecast

Tasmania is running at 0 tCO2/MWh with 100% renewable generation — wind (74 MW) and hydro (396 MW) covering the entire regional load — and has held that position across every interval on record today. South Australia sits at 0.04 tCO2/MWh with 92% renewables, driven by 473 MW of wind and a minimal 41 MW gas CCGT balancing; SA has maintained sub-0.05 tCO2/MWh since around 12:00 AEST and that low-intensity window is continuing into this evening. These two regions represent the clearest opportunities for carbon-sensitive load scheduling right now.

Victoria is at 0.49 tCO2/MWh with 58% renewable penetration, where 1,808 MW of wind output is offsetting 1,201 MW of brown coal and 108 MW of gas OCGT. VIC's intensity has been on a sustained downward trajectory since its overnight peak of 1.13 tCO2/MWh, and the current interval is the lowest recorded today — reflecting strong wind conditions persisting into the evening. NSW sits at 0.82 tCO2/MWh with only 7% renewables; 5,637 MW of black coal dominates the generation mix, with wind (245 MW) and solar (143 MW) making a limited contribution. Solar output is now negligible at 06:30 AEST on the UTC-offset data, consistent with post-solar-window conditions, and intensity is tracking near its daytime high of 0.84–0.85 tCO2/MWh.

Queensland is the highest-intensity region at 0.85 tCO2/MWh with just 3% renewables — 2,738 MW of black coal and 86 MW of hydro constitute virtually the entire dispatch stack. QLD's intensity has been flat at 0.85 tCO2/MWh since approximately 08:30 AEST with no meaningful variation, and there is no solar uplift evident in the current interval mix.

For carbon-sensitive loads, TAS and SA are the clear scheduling targets through the remainder of today, with SA's wind-driven intensity likely to remain below 0.05 tCO2/MWh into tonight. VIC offers a secondary opportunity given its downward intensity trend; the lowest VIC window of the day has been the past two hours and may extend further if wind holds. NSW and QLD present no near-term low-intensity windows without a material change in dispatch — solar ramp in NSW from approximately 07:00–09:00 AEST tomorrow will be the next meaningful intensity reduction in that region.