Regional Outlook — VIC1: Tuesday 7 April 2026
The Victoria spot price sits at $161.84/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 5,137 MW. This is sharply elevated against the overnight trough, where prices ran negative or near-zero across much of the 12:00–13:00 AEST window, briefly touching -$13.45/MWh at 14:45 AEST before the evening ramp drove prices above $100/MWh from around 16:50 AEST onward. The evening peak has pushed prices into the $155–$206/MWh band since 06:05 AEST, with a single interval at $206.28/MWh recorded at 06:10 AEST.
The current generation mix is dominated by brown coal at 2,204 MW, with gas OCGT contributing 109.86 MW and wind at 96.97 MW. Hydro is nominal at 0.42 MW, while solar output is zero given the overnight trading window. Gas CCGT is offline. Total metered generation from these sources sits at approximately 2,411 MW, with the balance of the 5,137 MW demand met via interconnector imports — consistent with Victoria's typical evening import position from NSW. Renewable penetration is 6.05% at the latest carbon reading (04:00 AEST), down sharply from a daytime high of 43.72% at 15:30 AEST when wind output was stronger and demand was lower. Carbon intensity sits at 1.1205 tCO2/MWh, the highest reading in the 24-hour window, reflecting the near-total reliance on brown coal and gas OCGT at this demand level.
Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST and 07:30 AEST half-hours point to prices easing to approximately $156/MWh and $123/MWh respectively, based on the most recent forecast runs. Earlier predispatch runs for these intervals had been more volatile — one run flagged $236.69/MWh for the 07:00 AEST period — but the trajectory in the most recent submissions is consistently lower, suggesting the market expects demand to fall away as the early-morning peak subsides. Load window data confirms prices are forecast to drop into the $8–$42/MWh range from 08:30 AEST onward, with negative pricing expected to return through the mid-morning and afternoon solar generation window, broadly replicating the same pattern seen overnight.
No market notices directly affect the Victorian region today. Active notices relate to NSW non-conformance events (ORABESS1, WTAHB1), a series of South Australian interventions and LOR1 conditions from 5–7 April (now cancelled), and a DWGM planned maintenance outage scheduled for 14–15 April with no electricity market impact. The MT PASA reserve notice published at 13:10 AEST identifies no Low Reserve Conditions across the NEM. The grid stress score of 80.2 reflects the current tight supply-demand balance during the evening peak, though the absence of any Victorian-specific constraint notices or reliability interventions suggests the system is managing within normal operating bounds.