Regional Outlook — TAS1: Tuesday 7 April 2026

The Tasmania spot price sits at $130.38/MWh at 06:35 AEST, a sharp step up from the $96.18/MWh floor that anchored most of the overnight period. Demand is running at 1,109.91 MW, consistent with the morning ramp that pushed prices above $100/MWh from around 17:00 AEST and produced an intra-session spike to $143.90/MWh at 06:10 AEST. The 24-hour price range has been wide — a low of $49.16/MWh in the early hours through to that $143.90/MWh peak — reflecting the volatility typical of a small islanded region where Basslink flows and hydro dispatch interact tightly with mainland pricing signals.

The generation mix is hydro-dominated: hydro is contributing 576.83 MW and wind 34.47 MW, with gas OCGT at zero output. Total metered generation sits well below demand at approximately 611 MW, indicating the balance is being sourced via Basslink import from Victoria. Carbon intensity registers at 0 tCO2/MWh with 100% renewable supply — a figure that has held consistently across every recorded carbon interval today. That zero-intensity outcome reflects purely local generation; the embedded carbon of any Basslink import is accounted for in Victorian, not Tasmanian, regional intensity figures.

Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST half-hour (21:00 UTC target) have converged to around $125.27/MWh in the most recent run, down from a peak forecast of $135.08/MWh issued several hours earlier. The 07:30 AEST half-hour is forecast at $96.18/MWh, suggesting the market anticipates price relief as demand passes its morning peak. Through the remainder of today (08:00–20:30 AEST), load window forecasts are uniformly in the $76–$99/MWh band, all rated "excellent" quality, pointing to a return to the mid-$90s baseline that characterised most of the prior 24 hours.

There are no active market notices directly affecting TAS1. The notices in the dataset relate to non-conformance events and intervention activity in NSW1, QLD1, and SA1 — notably a series of SA voltage-related directions and a resolved LOR1 condition — none of which have a direct TAS1 operational impact. The MT PASA reserve notice issued this morning confirms no Low Reserve Conditions are identified across the NEM for the outlook period. Traders should monitor Basslink transfer levels closely through the morning, as any constraint on the interconnector remains the primary upside price risk for TAS1 given the current import dependency.