regional sa — SA1

The SA1 spot price sits at $153.74/MWh against a total demand of 1,404.62 MW as of 06:35 AEST Wednesday 8 April. That current price is sharply elevated relative to overnight levels, which swung repeatedly into negative territory — bottoming at -$14.99/MWh around 15:55 AEST Tuesday before a sustained climb through the morning shoulder period. Prices have held broadly in the $125–$176/MWh band since approximately 17:00 AEST Tuesday, with two notable spikes to $370/MWh and $305/MWh around 02:35–02:50 AEST this morning reflecting tight supply conditions as overnight wind output softened. The 24-hour price profile is therefore characterised by deep overnight negatives followed by a firm elevated plateau — a pattern driven by the transition from surplus overnight generation into a tighter thermal-dependent morning mix.

The current generation mix is lean: wind is producing 315.4 MW and gas CCGT is contributing 238.92 MW, with gas OCGT at zero and solar at zero given the early hour. That puts total visible scheduled output at approximately 554 MW against a demand of 1,405 MW, with the remainder sourced via the Heywood and Murraylink interconnectors from Victoria. Renewable penetration sits at 34.28% as of the 04:00 AEST carbon snapshot, down sharply from overnight peaks that reached 85.5% around 16:00 AEST Tuesday when wind was stronger. Carbon intensity is 0.322 tCO2/MWh at last reading — a significant step up from the 0.071 tCO2/MWh low recorded mid-Tuesday, reflecting the reduced wind contribution and greater gas dispatch. The midday period on Tuesday recorded intensity as high as 0.475 tCO2/MWh, suggesting the mix is sensitive to interconnector flows and wind availability throughout the day.

Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST half-hour target cluster around $170–$178/MWh across the most recent runs, with the 07:30 AEST target forecasting a modest step down to approximately $136–$148/MWh. The directional signal is for prices to remain elevated through the morning peak before easing as demand drops and — if wind strengthens — renewables take a larger share of the mix. Load window data confirms an expected transition to very low-cost intervals from approximately 08:00–09:00 AEST onward, with forecast prices dropping to sub-$10/MWh and into negative territory through the middle of the day, consistent with Tuesday's pattern of midday surplus.

On the notices front, two SA-specific items are material. First, AEMO issued a foreseeable intervention notice (Market Notice 140945) citing voltage security concerns, though this was subsequently cancelled at 15:50 AEST Tuesday (Market Notice 140946) after sufficient market response. Second, and still active, a Forecast LOR1 condition (Market Notice 140941) was declared for SA covering 18:30–23:00 AEST Tuesday, with a forecast reserve shortfall of 113 MW (requirement 473 MW, available 360 MW); that window has now passed but traders should note SA's reserve position remains under heightened scrutiny. A direction to AGL's Barker Inlet PS (Market Notice 140930) for voltage control was issued 5 April and its