commodity demand qld — QLD1

Queensland spot price sits at $180.66/MWh with demand at 6,317 MW as of 6:35 AEST this morning, and the price trajectory over the past two hours tells the dominant story of the day: the evening ramp. Demand climbed from a low of around 4,280 MW in the early hours to above 8,180 MW at the morning peak near 18:15 AEST, with prices tracking that ascent tightly — moving from sub-zero territory overnight (touching -$8.80/MWh around 11:00–11:45 AEST) to a sustained band of $135–$161/MWh through the business day. The sharpest price-to-demand inflection occurred in the early morning ramp: as demand crossed 6,000 MW around 14:55 AEST, prices stepped decisively above $100/MWh and held there. A brief spike to $231.70/MWh at 06:10 AEST coincided with demand pushing through 6,259 MW, illustrating how thinly supplied the market is once the solar contribution falls away post-sunset.

Current conditions reflect the tail end of the evening demand recovery. With solar generation at 0 MW and black coal carrying 2,797 MW, the grid is running on dispatchable plant alone. Grid stress scores at 78.9 out of 100, consistent with the elevated and sticky pricing seen across the past three hours. A non-conformance notice for MUCRKSF1 (117 MW, QLD1 region) at 21:10 AEST adds a marginal capacity constraint to the picture, though its duration was brief.

Forward forecasts for 07:00 AEST (21:00 UTC) are converging in the $154–$164/MWh range after earlier estimates as high as $243/MWh were revised sharply lower through the afternoon as the demand outlook softened. The 07:30 AEST (21:30 UTC) period is forecast at $80–$102/MWh, pointing to a meaningful price step-down as demand retreats from the evening peak toward overnight trough levels. Load window data confirms the expected overnight relief: from 08:00 AEST onwards, prices are forecast to fall into low single digits or negative territory, consistent with the pattern seen in the early hours of this morning when demand dropped below 4,300 MW and prices cleared at -$8.80/MWh.

The key demand-price relationship to watch for the remainder of today is the pace of the evening demand roll-off. If demand retreats quickly through the 6,000–5,500 MW corridor, prices should ease toward the $80–$100/MWh range by 07:30 AEST and below $50/MWh by 08:30 AEST. Any demand stickiness above 6,200 MW — driven by slow residential cooling load dissipation — risks extending the $150+/MWh window. The MT PASA reserve notice confirms no low reserve conditions are forecast, so systemic scarcity is not the driver here; this is a straightforward demand-versus-dispatchable-supply margin issue in the post-solar hours.