Carbon Forecast

Tasmania is at 0.00 tCO2/MWh with 100% renewable generation — hydro (577 MW) and wind (34 MW) covering the entire load. South Australia is the next cleanest at 0.322 tCO2/MWh with 34% renewables, wind supplying 315 MW alongside 239 MW of gas CCGT baseload. At the other end, Victoria sits at 1.12 tCO2/MWh with renewables at just 6% — 2,204 MW of brown coal dominates the mix, supplemented by 110 MW of gas OCGT and only 97 MW of wind. NSW is at 0.800 tCO2/MWh (7% renewable), with 5,572 MW of black coal and 427 MW of gas CCGT providing the bulk of supply. Queensland is at 0.853 tCO2/MWh with renewables at 3%, effectively entirely black coal (2,797 MW) and hydro (86 MW) with solar and OCGT near zero.

The trajectory through today is shaped by the solar cycle. Earlier intervals — particularly around 06:00–07:30 AEST — showed SA reaching as low as 0.071 tCO2/MWh at 85% renewable penetration, and VIC dipping to 0.658 tCO2/MWh at 44% renewables, both driven by morning wind output. The current evening position (04:00 AEST on 8 April) reflects solar absence and reduced wind, which is why NSW and VIC intensity has climbed to daily highs. QLD's intensity has been essentially flat all day between 0.81–0.85 tCO2/MWh, indicating minimal renewable contribution regardless of time of day.

For carbon-sensitive loads, the optimal scheduling windows today are concentrated in SA between approximately 06:00 and 10:00 AEST, when solar generation ramps and wind is historically sustained — intensity there reached sub-0.10 tCO2/MWh during this morning's equivalent window. NSW and VIC will see their lowest intensity of the day during the solar peak period (roughly 10:00–14:00 AEST), though both will remain well above 0.60 tCO2/MWh given coal baseload. TAS remains a flat green window around the clock. Operators with flexibility to shift discretionary load to SA or TAS — or to time NEM-connected processes for the mid-morning solar window — will see the largest carbon abatement benefit today.