regional vic — VIC1
Victoria's spot price sits at $11/MWh at 06:30 AEST with total demand at 4,690 MW — a sharp contrast to the morning peak that saw prices reach $86/MWh around 18:00 AEST and sustain $60–$75/MWh through the mid-morning trading window (20:00–21:00 AEST). The extended period of negative prices between approximately 13:30 and 16:30 AEST — bottoming at -$19.99/MWh — reflects surplus generation conditions during daylight hours, a pattern consistent with April's shoulder season dynamics as solar output tapers but wind remains active.
The current generation mix has brown coal outputting 1,734 MW, wind at 835 MW, and gas OCGT at 110 MW, with hydro contributing a negligible 0.32 MW and solar at zero given the overnight timestamp. Renewables are contributing 34.9% of generation at the most recent carbon intensity interval. Carbon intensity sits at 0.7713 tCO2/MWh as of 05:30 AEST — a marked improvement from the morning peak of 0.9568 tCO2/MWh recorded around 17:30 AEST when renewable penetration dropped to 19.6%, consistent with the period when wind output was lower and brown coal carried the bulk of the load through the morning demand surge above 5,500 MW.
Predispatch forecasts point to prices remaining soft through the early morning, with the 07:00–08:00 AEST window (21:00–22:00 UTC) forecast at $11/MWh across multiple runs. Deeper negative pricing is forecast to return from approximately 09:30–14:00 AEST (23:30–04:00 UTC), with multiple predispatch runs projecting prices between -$10/MWh and -$25/MWh — tracking the same daytime surplus pattern seen today. By 17:00–18:00 AEST, predispatch signals a step-up toward the $11–$20/MWh range as demand builds through the evening ramp.
No active market notices directly affect VIC1 today. The most operationally relevant notices in the current queue relate to South Australia — an SA voltage-driven direction (Notice 140940) and a foreseeable intervention flagged for today from 21:30 AEST (Notice 140945, though subsequently cancelled via Notice 140946). Grid stress in Victoria is scored at 78.7 out of 100, reflecting the volatility profile across the day's trading rather than current real-time tightness. Traders and flexible load operators should note the predispatch signal for negative pricing in the 09:30–13:30 AEST window as a potential opportunity window, with the evening ramp from approximately 17:00 AEST marking the next meaningful upward price inflection.