regional sa — SA1

The spot price in South Australia sits at $45.10/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 1,332 MW. Comparing this to the overnight trough — where prices ran deeply negative from around 07:30 AEST through to 17:00 AEST on the same UTC date, bottoming at -$41.54/MWh during the early hours — the current level represents the evening ramp that has been in place since approximately 17:20 AEST, when prices climbed from the low single digits back toward the $40–$45/MWh range. The 24-hour price profile has been sharply bimodal: an extended negative-to-near-zero block through the low-demand, high-wind period, followed by a sustained positive price band through the business day peak ($50–$82/MWh) and a soft evening shoulder now settling in the mid-$40s.

The current generation mix shows wind contributing 253.75 MW and gas CCGT at 59.46 MW, with gas OCGT and solar both at 0 MW at the 06:20 AEST snapshot. The latest carbon intensity reads 0.0835 tCO2/MWh at 05:30 AEST, up from a daytime low of 0.0267 tCO2/MWh, consistent with the shift away from peak solar hours. Renewable penetration sits at 82.95% in the most recent carbon record, having tracked above 88% for most of the day and peaking near 94.55% during the midday solar window. The uptick in carbon intensity through the late afternoon and evening reflects gas generation taking a larger share of a reduced renewable contribution as solar output falls to zero.

The most critical market signal for today is the active foreseeable intervention notice (MN 140945) issued by AEMO, flagging a possible voltage-driven direction in SA from 21:30 AEST today, with AEMO requiring sufficient market response by 19:00 AEST to avoid intervening. A separate direction was already issued for SA on 6 April (MN 140940) commencing from the 07:35 AEST interval, confirming the voltage management issue is ongoing. A Forecast LOR1 reserve notice (MN 140941) remains active, declaring a capacity shortfall in SA between 04:30 and 09:00 AEST tonight, with forecast reserve of 360 MW against a requirement of 473 MW. The cancellation notice (MN 140946) confirms the earlier possible-intervention flag for 06 April from 01:50 AEST was stood down, but the fresh notice for today's 21:30 AEST window is live.

Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST half-hour (21:00 UTC) converge in the $40–$70/MWh range across the most recent runs, with the latest estimates clustering around $40–$42/MWh — a modest softening from earlier model runs that had flagged $98–$121/MWh for that interval. The 07:30 AEST and 08:00 AEST half-hours are forecast considerably higher, with predispatch consistently pricing those windows at $70–$167/MWh across multiple runs, reflecting the anticipated morning demand ramp combined with the voltage-security intervention risk. Traders and dispatch managers should treat the 07:00–10: