Carbon Forecast

Tasmania sits at 0.00 tCO2/MWh with 100% renewable generation — entirely hydro (335 MW) and wind (117 MW) — and has held that position consistently across every interval in the dataset. South Australia is the next lowest at 0.08 tCO2/MWh with renewables at 83%, driven by 254 MW of wind and a small CCGT firming contribution of 59 MW; SA's intensity has drifted up from its overnight low of around 0.03 tCO2/MWh as wind output moderates into the evening. These two regions represent the clearest options for carbon-sensitive loads right now.

Queensland is the highest-intensity region at 0.85 tCO2/MWh, with renewables at just 3.4% — 2,425 MW of black coal provides the vast bulk of supply, supplemented by 87 MW of hydro and negligible gas and solar. The pattern has been flat since around 07:30 AEST and shows no sign of shifting through the evening. NSW is close behind at 0.84 tCO2/MWh, with 4,819 MW of black coal dominating and renewables (141 MW wind, 93 MW solar) contributing only 4.6%; solar output has already dropped to near zero, consistent with the post-sunset timing of the latest interval (06:30 AEST). Victoria sits at 0.77 tCO2/MWh with renewables at 35% — 761 MW of wind is the primary renewable contributor alongside 1,854 MW of brown coal and 109 MW of gas OCGT firming. VIC's intensity peaked around 0.96 tCO2/MWh at 07:30 AEST and has moderated since as wind has picked up through the afternoon.

For carbon-sensitive scheduling through the remainder of today, TAS1 is the clear first choice and intensity will remain at zero provided interconnector flows and hydro dispatch hold. SA1 is the second option, though the trend from 19:00 AEST onward shows intensity creeping up as renewable penetration falls from 91% to 83% — watch for further softening overnight as wind variability increases and solar is absent. In VIC, wind is currently running strongly at 761 MW and intensity at 0.77 tCO2/MWh is at its best level of the day; if wind holds, VIC will continue to offer a materially lower-intensity option than NSW or QLD through the evening. NSW and QLD offer no near-term green windows — with solar off and no scheduled shift in thermal dispatch, both regions are locked into the 0.83–0.85 tCO2/MWh band for the remainder of the day.